Two clubs facing each other for the first time this season, the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Washington Capitals clash at Capital One Arena in an Eastern Conference showdown. The puck drops at 7 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 13, and you can see the game live on CBC Sports.
Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Washington Capitals Odds
Washington (-125) is currently favored over Toronto (+105). The Over/Under (O/U), set at 7 goals, originally opened at -110 for the over and -110 for the under. That line has since shifted however, and it now sits at -105 for the over, -115 for the under.
Toronto is 4-1 straight up (SU) and has earned moneyline bettors 1.1 units this year. That SU winning percentage, ranked second in the league so far in this young season, is an improvement compared to how the team performed last season (49-33). Four of its matches have gone over the total, while one has gone under. This 2018-19 Maple Leafs team is 3-0 SU on the road.
Toronto has impressively converted on 50.0 percent of its power play opportunities thus far. That’s a nice improvement from last season, when it was ranked second in the league by converting on 25.0 percent of its extra-man chances. Its penalty kill has also gotten stronger year-over-year, as the team has gone from successfully defending 80.2 percent of opponents’ power plays (ranked 16th overall last season) to 84.6 percent this year.
For the team as a whole, Toronto has been called for penalties just 2.8 times per game this season. Last year, that figure was the second-best mark in the league at 3.3 penalties per game. After serving an average of 7.2 penalty minutes per game a year ago, the team’s been forced to stave off opponent power plays for 6.6 minutes per matchup this season.
Averaging 27.3 saves per game with a .893 save percentage, Frederik Andersen (3-1) has been the best option in goal for Toronto this year. If it chooses to rest him, however, head coach Mike Babcock might go with Garret Sparks (1-0), who has a .806 save percentage and 5.97 goals against average this year.
The visiting Maple Leafs have relied on Morgan Rielly and Auston Matthews this year. Rielly (12 points) has tallied three goals and nine assists this season while Matthews has nine goals and three assists to his credit through the early phase of the regular season.
On the other side of the rink, Washington is 2-2 straight up (SU) and has netted moneyline bettors 0.0 units this season. Through four regular season outings, three of its games have gone over the total, while one has gone under and none have pushed. It’s 2-0 SU at home so far this year.
Washington has scored on 37.5 percent of its power plays this year after converting on 24.1 percent (ranked fifth in league) last season. It has killed off a remarkable 80.0 percent of all penalties, compared to 79.4 percent a year ago (when it was ranked 19th overall).
Washington skaters have been penalized 4.5 times per game this season. Last year, that number was at 4.0, the seventh-highest mark in the league. After serving an average of 9.5 penalty minutes per game a year ago, the team’s had to stave off opponent power plays for 10.5 minutes per matchup this season.
Braden Holtby has stopped 29.3 shots per game as the primary choice in goal for Washington. Holtby has two wins, one loss, and one OT loss and has maintained a mediocre 2.98 goals against average and a fairly-weak .907 save percentage this year.
The Caps will be led on offense by Evgeny Kuznetsov (three goals, four assists).
Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals Betting Picks
Pick: SU Winner – Capitals, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Trends
The over has hit in three of Washington’s last five outings.
The Maple Leafs are 2-0 when they serve fewer penalty minutes than their opponent and 3-1 in games where they serve fewer than 10 total penalty minutes.
Toronto has averaged 5.0 goals per game overall this season, but has upped that figure to 6.3 per match up over their three-game winning streak.
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