After a surprising appearance by the Denver Broncos team we all expected to see at the beginning of the year served notice that the era of NFL pretenders are over. October is the month of separation, where the chaff gets removed from the wheat an we all get a real idea of who is in this thing for real and who is about to fall hard to reality. It looks like it’s already happening in Denver.
Before we go on to the picks, let’s look at the expert standings. We’ve got a three-way tie atop the standings between Fox Sports’ Andrew Lynch, Dallas Morning News Kate Hairopoulos and USA Todat’s Mike Middlehurst-Schwartz, all at 50-27.
Then down in the middle of the pack I sit, 39-38, still just a game up on NFL Pick punching back Will Brinson from CBS Sports. It’s been tough sledding for The FAQ this year. But this is October. It’s time to make our run.
Byes: Vikings, Buccaneers
Sunday Early Games
San Francisco at Buffalo (-9)
Colin Kaepernick returns to quarterback the 49ers (1-4) and it won’t do any good. The Bills (3-2) are back in Buffalo and have a knack for putting away the teams they’re supposed to. I don’t like the points, but I like the Bills. Bills 23, 49ers 20
Philadelphia at Washington (+2.5)
The Eagles (3-1) finally took a stumble last week, but it took all 60 minutes for the Lions to take them down. Philadelphia isn’t losing to two bad teams in a row and make no mistake, the Redskins (3-2) are a bad team. Eagles 24, Redskins 17
Cleveland at Tennessee (-7)
You want an upset? You want a dog? Haw about the Dawg Pound? The Browns (0-5) aren’t going winless this season. That’s a historic feat that only the 2008 Detroit Lions were worthy of accomplishing. The Titans (2-3) remained coached by Mike Mularkey and that alone gives Cleveland a puncher’s chance. Browns 20, Titans 17
Baltimore at New York Giants (-3.5)
I’m not sure what Ben McAdoo has done with the Giants (2-3) that made the books give them 3.5 points in this one. The last time the Ravens (3-2) switched offensive coordinators in the season it took them all the way to the Super Bowl. It might happen again. Ravens 31, Giants 30
Carolina at New Orleans (+2.5)
Cam Newton returns for the Panthers (1-4) and hopefully with his brains, arm and legs intact. The Saints (1-4) can put up points, but struggle stopping a normal NFL offense. A healthy Newton is something no one on that defensive squad is prepared for. Panthers 38, Saints 31
Jacksonville at Chicago (-1)
The Bears (1-4) have Brian Hoyer fever! That usually comes with a bout of nausea and Lovecraftian diarrhea. The Jags (1-4) finally picked up their first win in London. Gus Bradley has the worst head coaching record in the modern NFL, but for some reason I like their chances against a overmatched Chicago team. Jaguars 27, Bears 23
Los Angeles at Detroit (-3)
Jeff Fisher not only kept his spot on the shit coaches list, he emphatically showed why the end-0f-season award should probably be named after him after personally calling the play that cost the Rams (3-2) their game against the Bills last week. The Lions (2-3) have their own horrible commander at the helm and have somehow managed to win two games in spite of Jim Caldwell’s coaching prowess. In the battle of bad coaches, I’ll take the better roster. God help me. Rams 17, Lions 14
Pittsburgh at Miami (+7.5)
If the Dolphins (1-4) thought they’ve had it rough this year, they’re about to be clubbed to death like a baby seal for Kanye’s new underwear collection. The Steelers (4-1) are no longer screwing around. Steelers 44, Dolphins 19
Cincinnati at New England (-8.5)
The Bengals (2-3) have been the victim of a front-loaded schedule, but if they were really going to make a run this season, they would have at least been competitive in these games. The Patriots (4-1) are still in the midst of that Brady afterglow. I don’t like the spread, but I’m not going against the Pats at home. Patriots 27, Bengals 24
Sunday Late Games
Kansas City at Oakland (+2)
The Chiefs (2-2) get a lot of respect from the bookmakers here coming off their bye. The Raiders (4-1), as of this writing, control their own destiny in the AFC West. I think Kansas City messes that up. Chiefs 20, Raiders 17
Atlanta at Seattle (-6)
The Falcons (4-1) have the best offense in football so far this year. The Seahawks (3-1) had an extra week to prepare for it. After being stymied the first two weeks of the season, Seattle’s offense came to life right before the bye. I think that will be the difference. Seahawks 31, Falcons 27
Dallas at Green Bay (-4)
The Cowboys (4-1) may have too many quarterbacks. The Packers (3-1) ask their quarterback to do too much. I’ve ridden with Dak Prescott all season. I’m doing it again. Cowboys 34, Packers 30
Sunday Night
Indianapolis at Houston (-2.5)
As horrible as the Colts (2-3) have been this season, they can take control over the AFC South with a win here. The Texans (3-2) are in the midst of a face-fall to the end of the season and a well-earned coaching change. Colts 34, Texans 27
Monday Night
New York Jets at Arizona (-7)
You know that Jon Gruden and Sean McDonough looked at this game on their NFL schedule in the preseason and thought, “Finally, there’s no way this game will be a disaster.” Jokes on them. The Jets (1-4) would be the most disappointing team in football if everyone didn’t pick the Cardinals (2-3) to go to the Super Bowl. Congratulations, Arizona. You can pretend you’ve fixed everything for a week. Cardinals 33, Jets 20
This week
Straight up: 0-1
Against the spread: 0-1
Last week
Straight up: 7-7
Against the spread: 9-5
Season
Straight up: 39-38
Against the spread: 33-44
