The Atlanta Braves will face their divisional rival New York Mets at Citi Field. The matchup will get underway at 7:10 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to SportsNet New York to catch the game.
Atlanta Braves at New York Mets Odds
Atlanta (-120) is favored over New York (+110) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this game at 8 runs (+100 for the over and -120 for the under). Gamblers can also bet on the game’s runline with the odds standing at +125 for the Braves -1.5 runs and -145 for the Mets +1.5.
The Mets are 78-78 against the spread (ATS), but just 74-84 straight up (SU). The team has lost 11.1 units for moneyline bettors and 7.4 units (ATS). New York has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Braves have gone 89-69 SU this year and are 81-75 ATS. Overall, the team’s gained 23.4 units for moneyline bettors and 2.9 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the over has cashed in five of those seven.
New York games have a 69-78-9 over/under record in 2018. Atlanta has an over/under record of 76-74-6.
Julio Teheran will get the start for Atlanta. The right-handed Teheran is 9-8 with a 4.03 ERA and 157 strikeouts. He’s 1-1 with 21 strikeouts and a 1.69 ERA against New York this year (four starts).
The Mets will send lefty Jason Vargas (6-9, 6.25 ERA) to the mound. Vargas has 78 strikeouts and 30 walks to his name, as well as a WHIP of 1.49. Vargas is 1-2 with 12 strikeouts and a 6.14 ERA across three starts against Atlanta this year.
New York’s pitching staff has yielded 4.4 runs per game overall this year as a unit. The team’s starters have a 3.64 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.02 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 8.5 K/9. In 72 divisional games, Mets starters have an ERA of 3.47 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.06.
The New York offense is putting up 4.2 runs per contest, including 4.1 per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .216/.335/.346 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that span.
The Mets’ offense has been led by shortstop Amed Rosario and right fielder Michael Conforto. Rosario is slashing .259/.298/.387 with nine home runs, 50 RBIs, 76 runs and 22 steals, while Conforto’s line sits at .246/.353/.456 with 28 homers, 82 RBIs and 77 runs.
For the visitors, Atlanta’s pitching staff allowed 4.1 runs per game and its starters own a 3.55 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.61 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 4.12, along with a WHIP of 1.22 and a K/9 of 8.87.
The Braves offense has slashed .257/.327/.420 on its way to 4.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 5.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.0 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).
First baseman Freddie Freeman and outfielder Nick Markakis continue to lead Atlanta’s hitters. Freeman is slashing .308/.386/.502 with 23 home runs, 95 RBIs and 94 runs scored, while Markakis (.301/.368/.447) is up to 14 homers, 93 RBIs and 77 runs scored.
The Braves have lost 2.6 units and are 18-26 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 23 of those games, compared to 20 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 4.0 units and are 58-57 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 53 of those games, as opposed to 56 that’ve gone under.
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets MLB Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Mets, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Notes
The under has cashed in only two of Atlanta’s last seven games.
Atlanta has posted 19.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 16.4 over its last five.
The Braves have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit six over their last 10.
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