Folarin Balogun’s one-game suspension was suspended by FIFA on Sunday, leaving the U.S. striker available for Monday’s knockout match against Belgium and prompting swift reactions from oddsmakers. The temporary reprieve removed the pre-match assumption that the United States would be without its leading scorer.
DraftKings adjusted its market on the news, moving the U.S. from -115 to -140 to advance past Belgium, while other sportsbooks made only marginal changes, according to industry reports. The consensus price on Monday listed the United States at -125 and Belgium at +105, reflecting what oddsmakers described as a razor-tight matchup.
Craig Mucklow, vice president of trading for Caesars Sportsbook, said pre-match pricing had been built on the assumption Balogun would be unavailable and that “adjustments were necessary across nearly every market” after the red card was rescinded.
The federation has granted Belgium the right to appeal FIFA’s suspension decision, according to multiple reports. Regardless of the procedural developments, bettors heavily favored the Americans: BetMGM reported that 92% of the money wagered to advance was on the U.S., with most of that action placed before news of Balogun’s reinstatement.
The World Cup has produced record wagering activity, with more than $18 billion traded on the event on prediction market Kalshi. Caesars said Sunday’s England-Mexico match drew more money than any soccer match in its history, surpassing the prior high set by Argentina-Cape Verde; Caesars expects the U.S.-Belgium game to top the list and potentially set another wagering record.
