We’re off trend after Week 4 of the NFL season. After underdogs went 19-13 over Weeks 2 and 3, they were 7-8 last week. Does this mean the oddsmakers are finally figuring out the weird 2018 NFL season? Or will Week 4 be an outlier, even though underdogs still nearly went .500?
More research is required, which is why I’m delivering you the best NFL underdog picks for Week 5 for your entertainment and betting purposes. We’ll figure it out together.
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-10, O/U: 51.5)
For our first potential upset pick, look no further than tonight’s Thursday Night Football extravaganza. For years, the Colts and Patriots was a marquee game of the season and even after Peyton Manning left Indiana, it remained so. The Colts, if you’ll recall, are the team that blew the lid off DeflateGate which resulted in a four-game suspension for Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.
Related: NFL Betting Guide
Why is this line so high? Well, T.Y. Hilton, Marlon Mack and Jack Doyle have all been ruled out for Indy, so there’s that. Also, there seems to be a belief that after a 2-2 start, New England is about to turn it on after a 30-plus point beat down of their main AFC East rival, the Miami Dolphins. I can definitely see that. But 10 points is a lot on a Thursday night game against a sneaky good team on just three days’ prep.
New England 7 – Colts 0 in the last seven meetings.
How do the players feel about the "rivalry"? @KBowen1070 https://t.co/iw9xaxBSKc pic.twitter.com/YEYGdCXVgI
— 1070 The Fan (@1070thefan) October 3, 2018
Am I thinking the Colts will get the upset here? Nope. Do I think they can keep it within nine points or less with a healthy Andrew Luck coming off his best game of the season? Absolutely.
Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-1, O/U: 42.5)
I don’t get this line at all. The Broncos nearly knocked the Kansas City Chiefs from the ranks of the unbeaten on Monday night. The Jets haven’t looked like a competent football team since Week 1. Sam Darnold is supposed to handle the pass rush Denver will send after him and win this game?
The Broncos offensive rookie trio of Phillip Lindsay, Royce Freeman and Courtland Sutton have combined for 678 yards from scrimmage this year, the most by a rookie class through four games since the 1984 Pittsburgh Steelers.
— Nicki Jhabvala (@NickiJhabvala) October 3, 2018
Granted, Case Keenum showed Monday exactly why he isn’t a franchise quarterback. Sure, you can win games with him and should be happy to have him on your roster as a back up. He’s Ryan Fitzpatrick without the extra interception. But the Broncos, across the board, are just better than New York. It’s a mystery that the Jets are favored and I have no issue picking the Broncos here to win outright.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, O/U: 57.5)
Over the last two weeks, Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan has completed more than 74 percent of his passes for 793 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions. His team has lost both games. Such a fact should be impossible, but it exemplifies the struggles of Atlanta’s defense.
#Falcons coach Dan Quinn said 1) communication, 2) tackling, 3) pass rushing and 4) ball-hawking will the keys to the defense turning things around.
— Matt Tabeek (@MatthewTabeek) October 3, 2018
You know who’s doing worse? Mike Tomlin and his entire staff. I don’t see any way this Steelers defense can stop the Falcons. Atlanta, at least, has the talent, if not the coaching, to slow down Pittsburgh. If I’m picking today, I say the Falcons win and this one may not be that close.
