The Miami Heat (6-10) square off against the Brooklyn Nets (7-10) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 20, 2018, and will air on YES Network.
Miami opened as a 3-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 215.5 points.
Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat Betting Prediction
In the Nets’ last outing, they were beaten by the Los Angeles Clippers, 127-119, and failed to cover as 4-point underdogs. The combined points for the game (246) came in well over the projected point total of 221.5. Los Angeles’ 7.0 turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Brooklyn, who had a rate of 9.7. The Clippers’ mark was better than their season average of 12.6. Brooklyn’s D’Angelo Russell had a solid outing, contributing 23 points and 10 assists.
The Heat fell to the Los Angeles Lakers in their last contest, 113-97. They were unable to cover as 1.5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (210) finished under the O/U total of 224.5. Los Angeles’ 7.9 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Miami, who had a rate of 11.2. The Lakers’ mark was better than their season average of 13.0. With 17 points and six rebounds, Miami’s Josh Richardson had a solid game.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Hassan Whiteside put up 14 points and 10 rebounds and the Heat defeated the Nets 120-107, covering as 2-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 227 points, which was 13 points above the projected point total of 214 points. Miami did a terrific job of getting and making free throws (20-28; 71.4 percent). Brooklyn, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (28.1 vs. 16.7).
Brooklyn heads into the game with records of 7-10 straight up (SU) and 8-9 against the spread (ATS). Just over half of the Nets’ games have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Miami is 6-10 SU and 6-10 ATS. Of the Heat’s 16 games, 11 have finished over the projected point total.
Both teams have had a player step their game up over their last five games. Russell (20 points,5.4 assists,1.8 steals) has been stellar for the Nets while Tyler Johnson (15 points,1.2 blocks) has made solid contributions to the Heat.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, Miami should have a substantial edge. The Heat defense ranks eighth in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.509), while the Brooklyn offense is ranked 19th in effective field goal percentage (0.515).
Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat ATS Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Nets, ATS Winner – Nets, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Brooklyn is 6-4 ATS with 6 unders, 3 overs and 1 push.
Miami is 3-6 ATS at home with 6 overs and 3 unders.
Brooklyn is 3-0 when they hold opponents under 100 points, while Miami is 2-1.
The Nets are 7-9 when they score more than 100 points, while the Heat are 5-8.
Miami ranks first in blocks per game (6.6) while Brooklyn ranks 25th (4.4).
The Nets rank sixth in second chance points per game (15.1) while the Heat rank 27th in second chance points allowed per game (16.6).
Brooklyn ranks fourth in steals allowed per game (6.8) while Miami ranks 19th (7.8).
The Heat average 47.6 rebounds per game, which ranks sixth in the league. The Nets rank 21st in rebounds allowed per game (46.2).
Miami ranks 20th in fast break points per game (11.6) while Brooklyn ranks last (8.6).
The Nets rank 20 in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.705882352941178) while the Heat rank 28 (20.0625).
Brooklyn ranks 1 in three pointers allowed per game (24.647058823529413) while Miami ranks 8 (29.5).
The Heat rank 5 in points allowed in the paint per game (44.25) while the Nets rank 11 (47.294117647058826).
Brooklyn leads the league with 20.764705882352942 assists allowed per game while Miami is 2 with 21.4375 assists allowed per game.
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five contests, Brooklyn is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Miami is 1-4 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over its last five games.
The Nets’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 6.6, up from 1.4 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 106.4 points per game (2.9 below their season average) and allowed an average of 111.8 points per game (1.2 above their season average).
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