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College Football Betting: NCAA Power Rankings – Week 6

Michael C. Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

The number of unbeaten teams in college football is down to 14, including 11 from Power 5 conferences.

An even more exclusive list — teams that are still unbeaten against the spread. There are seven left, though one of those, Syracuse, has a push on its record. That leaves six teams that are perfect against the number: Washington State (5-0); Utah State, West Virginia, Georgia Southern and Florida International (4-0); and Appalachian State (3-0).

Of those, West Virginia is the only team that’s unbeaten both straight up and ATS. For that, the Mountaineers enter the top 5 of this week’s GMS NCAA power rankings.

NCAA Power Rankings

  1. Alabama (5-0, 3-2 ATS, last week: 1)

The larger and larger numbers that oddsmakers are laying against the Crimson Tide are finally starting to become too much. For the second straight week, Alabama had a big spread covered, this time 48.5 points against Louisiana-Lafayette, before a couple of late touchdowns gave the underdog a backdoor cover. It’s the same deal this week, except on the road: Alabama is giving up 34.5 points at Arkansas.

Related: College Football Betting Guide

  1. Ohio State (5-0, 3-2 ATS, last week: 2)

It took everything the Buckeyes had, plus a couple of mistakes from Penn State, but Ohio State was able to walk away from Happy Valley with a 27-26 victory. Unfortunately for bettors, the Buckeyes were giving away 3.5 points. Still, that’s an impressive straight-up road win and enough to keep Ohio State at No. 2. The schedule lightens up considerably, and it’s possible Ohio State is a double-digit favorite in every game, except possibly a Nov. 10 trip to Michigan State or a Nov. 24 visit from Michigan.

  1. Georgia (5-0, 2-3 ATS, last week: 3)

The Bulldogs haven’t been convincing in either of their past two victories, but they also were never truly threatened in a 14-point win at Missouri or last week’s 38-12 thrashing of Tennessee (+31). Still, it would be nice to see Georgia take care of an overmatched opponent and the spread this week against Vanderbilt before a huge game looms on Oct. 13 at LSU.

  1. LSU (5-0, 3-2 ATS, last week: 5)

Speaking of which, the Bayou Bengals move up a spot this week for taking care of business at home against Ole Miss while other top contenders faltered. LSU quarterback Joe Burrow had almost 400 yards of offense and showed that the Tigers might actually have an explosive offense to go with that vaunted defense. That theory will be severely tested in the next four games, all against teams in these power rankings: Florida, Georgia, Mississippi State and Alabama.

  1. West Virginia (5-0, 5-0 ATS, last week: 11)

And now for this week’s big movers. It’s time to give the Mountaineers their due after they went to Lubbock, Texas, and covered as favorites against Texas Tech, which had defeated (and covered against) Oklahoma State, which had defeated (and covered against) Boise State, which … you get the idea. West Virginia is rolling and should continue to do so, at least from a straight-up perspective, well into November: The Mountaineers will be double-digit favorites against Kansas (+28.5), at Iowa State and against Baylor.

  1. Notre Dame (5-0, 3-2 ATS, last week: 12)

The other big mover is the Fighting Irish, which has shaken off its Week 2 and Week 3 doldrums to smoke Wake Forest and then, most impressively, Stanford in the past two weeks. Notre Dame has a tricky trip to Virginia Tech (the line opened at Irish -4 and has been increasing ever since) this week. If the Irish can survive that, the coast appears relatively clear the rest of the way.

  1. Oklahoma (5-0, 2-3 ATS, last week: 7)

After a couple of shaky performances as a big favorite, the Sooners got rolling in a big way in a 66-33 smoking of Baylor last week. Now the real season starts as far as the schedule is concerned; four of the Sooners’ next five games are against the Big 12’s upper echelon, starting with the Red River Rivalry game in Dallas against Texas. OU is 7.5-point chalk.

  1. Penn State (4-1, 4-1 ATS, last week: 8)

The Nittany Lions lost in heartbreaking fashion to Ohio State and put themselves behind the 8-ball as far as the Big Ten East race is concerned. However, from a gambling perspective, Penn State just kept rolling, collecting its fourth straight cover since the opening scare against Appalachian State (which is itself unbeaten against the spread). The Lions have a bye week to rebound from disappointment, with Michigan State coming to town next week.

  1. Clemson (5-0, 1-4 ATS, last week: 4)

The Tigers have officially become a team you can’t trust. They’ve covered once in five weeks and should have probably lost to Syracuse last week before a great escape. You can’t blame Dabo Swinney and company for their unfortunate quarterback situation, with Trevor Lawrence getting hurt right after Kelly Bryant announced his intent to transfer, but the fact remains that Clemson is on shaky ground. But it is also the only ACC team in these rankings and thus should have plenty of chances to right the ship for bettors while staying in the College Football Playoff picture. Up next is a trip to Wake Forest (+17).

  1. Auburn (4-1, 2-3 ATS, last week: 9)

It was a strange game, with a long lightning delay followed a few minutes later by a full-length halftime, but Auburn continued to be unimpressive in victory in a 24-13 win against Southern Miss (+27). There aren’t many gimmes left on the schedule, so Auburn will have to start playing to its maximum capability quickly before the season turns south. The Tigers are 3-point favorites this week at Mississippi State, another SEC West team that’s been scuffling.

  1. Stanford (4-1, 3-2 ATS, last week: 6)

Woof. The Cardinal went toe-to-toe at Notre Dame for about a quarter and a half, but once the Irish asserted control, Stanford was unable to show off any of its trademark toughness in coming back. There are still plenty of chances for this team to make some waves in Pac-12 play, most notably with games at Arizona State and at Washington.

  1. Washington (4-1, 2-3 ATS, last week: 10)

Speaking of the Huskies, they’ll rue their season-opening loss to Auburn in Atlanta all the way to Christmas, because the door is wide open for them to go undefeated in the Pac-12 and put up a strong resume for the CFP. But if Auburn loses a couple more times (and Georgia and Alabama are still on the schedule), then Washington has very little resume points to stack up against a possible second SEC team. Gamblers, however, can take heart that UW showed some explosiveness for the first time in thrashing BYU 35-7 last week. Up next is a trip to UCLA, with Washington giving 21 points.

  1. Central Florida (4-0, 3-1 ATS, last week: 14)

The Knights’ covering machine rolled on this week, pounding 13-point dog Pittsburgh 45-14 and stymieing the sharp money in the process. UCF has now covered as big favorites three times, all by double digits, and it’s possible this team starts getting the Alabama treatment on a smaller scale. How big can oddsmakers make the spread before bettors will dare to bet against Central Florida? This week, it’s 24 points at home against SMU.

  1. Michigan (4-1, 2-3 ATS, last week: 13)

A gritty comeback win at Northwestern kept Michigan’s season afloat last week, but it cost the Wolverines’ backers some dough as they failed to cover -15.5 in the 20-17 win. This team under Jim Harbaugh has shown a frustrating inability to perform against tough opponents, and after a visit from Maryland (+17.5) this week, there are more coming up: Wisconsin, Michigan State and Penn State, all in a row.

  1. Kentucky (5-0, 3-2 ATS, last week: 15)

It’s actually a bit strange to think that one of the nation’s biggest surprise teams is only 3-2 against the spread, but the Wildcats haven’t covered either time they’ve been a big favorite. Instead, Kentucky has thrived as an underdog, beating Florida and Mississippi State while giving points and then taking out South Carolina in a pick ’em game last week. They’ll be an underdog again, +5.5 at Texas A&M this week. We’re also yet to see what happens when Kentucky and its strong running game fall behind in a game.

  1. Oklahoma State (4-1, 3-2 ATS, last week: NR)

The slip-up against Texas Tech notwithstanding, this has still been one of the better teams to bet on in the country. Oklahoma State has proven it’s explosive enough to handle a big spread, and it’ll see plenty of them. That starts with a visit from Iowa State (+10.5), which will be an interesting litmus test for the Cowboys. The Cyclones have covered easily as a road dog in each of their first two Big 12 Conference games.

  1. Florida (4-1, 4-1 ATS, last week: NR)

Welcome to the rankings for the first time this season the Florida Gators, who have made gamblers plenty of money outside of a 27-16 loss to Kentucky as a 13.5-point favorite. That’s a rather ugly loss, but it’s the only one straight up or ATS on the resume. Coming off a 13-6 win at Mississippi State as a 6.5-point underdog, Florida gets another opportunity for a big win as a 2-point home underdog against LSU this week in the CBS game of the week.

  1. Appalachian State (3-1, 4-0 ATS, last week: NR)

Well, look at who we have here. Most fans only remember the Mountaineers this season for their near-miss in an overtime loss at Penn State in the opener, but take a look at what App State has done since then: A 45-9 win over Charlotte, a 72-7 thrashing of Gardner-Webb and a 52-7 win against South Alabama. None of those wins are going to raise the Mountaineers’ profile nationally, but they all made for easy wins for gamblers. In fact, App State has covered by an average of 19.9 points in four games. This week brings a bye before a Tuesday game against Arkansas State to open college football’s Week 7.

  1. Texas A&M (3-2, 4-1 ATS, last week: 19)

We’ll close with a couple of teams from the toughest division in college football, the SEC West. Only Ole Miss and Arkansas aren’t in these power rankings. Texas A&M dropped its first decision against the spread last week in a sloppy win over Arkansas, so we’ll see how the Aggies rebound as 5.5-point chalk against Kentucky. For all the good it has done against the spread, Texas A&M has yet to win a big game this year. This one certainly would qualify.

  1. Mississippi State (3-2, 3-2 ATS, last week: 16)

Naturally, all of these SEC teams are starting to run into each other, and someone has got to lose (or at least push). The Bulldogs hang on to the final spot in the rankings despite losing straight up as favorites the past two weeks against Kentucky and Florida, because they did a lot of good as big favorites the first three weeks. But if State can’t cover as 3-point underdogs against Auburn, a new team will appear in this spot next week.

Also considered (alphabetical order): Arizona State, Boise State, Boston College, BYU, Colorado, Iowa, Miami, Michigan State, Missouri, Oregon, Texas, Texas Tech, Utah State, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Wisconsin

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