A couple of teams that like running the football, Head Coach Willie Fritz and the Tulane Green Wave (-8) are gearing up to host the Navy Midshipmen at Benson Field at Yulman Stadium. This AAC game starts at 12:00 p.m. ET and ESPNU is in line to televise the action.
Navy Midshipmen vs. Tulane Green Wave Betting Preview
In this Saturday American Athletic Conference game, Tulane is projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 8 points. The Midshipmen are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Green Wave are -330. If one side can create a bunch of points early it’ll generate a nice live betting scenario. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 53.5 points.
This game’s opening line was -7. The O/U has yet to move after it was set initially at 53.5.
The underwhelming Midshipmen are down 9.9 units so far in 2018 and 4-7 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 5-5. The Green Wave have gained 1.4 units this season. The team is 5-6 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-9.
The Midshipmen are 3-8 straight up (SU), including 2-5 SU against conference opponents. The Green Wave are 5-6 SU overall and are also 4-3 SU in conference play.
When these two programs met a year ago, Navy earned the win 23-21.
The Midshipmen enter after a 37-29 win over Tulsa last week where the Midshipmen completed 1-of-2 passes for 15 yards. Zach Abey went one-for-2 for 15 yards while Travis Brannan completed -of- for yards. Abey (128 rushing yards on 26 attempts, two TDs) also led the running attack and was complemented by Malcolm Perry (76 yards on six carries). CJ Williams (one receptions, 15 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Tulane just lost convincingly 48-17 to Houston. The defense allowed the Cougars to eat up the clock by running for 298 yards on 48 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Patrick Carr had a good showing in the win for Houston, recording 139 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 18 attempts. For Tulane, Justin McMillan completed 10-of-20 passes for 147 yards and two interceptions. Darius Bradwell (89 yards on 14 rush attempts, one TD) and Corey Dauphine (51 yards on 12 carries) mounted the running game while Jabril Clewis (two receptions, 18 yards) and Terren Encalade (two catches, 52 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Navy has run the ball on 87.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Tulane has an overall rush percentage of 66.6 percent. The Midshipmen have rushed for 304 yards/game (including 302 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 35 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Green Wave are averaging 215 rush yards per game (239 in conference) and have 24 total rushing TDs.
The Midshipmen offense has averaged 60 yards through the air overall (47 per game against conference opposition) and has three passing TDs so far. The Green Wave have recorded 177 pass yards per outing (162.1 in the AAC) and have 11 total pass scores.
Navy seems to hold an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 194 yards and pass for 246 yards per game. The Tulane D has allowed 272.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 155.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Green Wave are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.13 to opponents, while the Midshipmen have allowed an 8.15 ANY/A.
Offensively, Abey has amassed 79 passing yards on the year, and has completed 56 percent of his 9 attempts with zero scores through the air and has yet to throw an interception. Abey’s got a 3.00 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 2.00 over the last two outings.
We expect the Navy offense to mix it up in this one. Zach Abey (210 rushing yards, 12 rush TDs, 0 receiving yards this season), Tre Walker (254 rush yards, one rush TD, one receiving TD) and Malcolm Perry (958 rush yards, seven rush TDs, 76 receiving yards) have each played big roles recently.
Justin McMillan has completed 38-of-79 passes for 496 yards, three TDs and two INTs for Tulane. His ANY/A stands at 4.92 for the year and 9.33 across his past two outings.
As a trio, Darnell Mooney, Darius Bradwell and Terren Encalade have collectively accounted for 538 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the last two outings.
RELATED: Week 13 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Pick: Navy Midshipmen at Tulane Green Wave
SU Winner – Tulane, ATS Winner – Tulane, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Tulane D has tallied 33 sacks on the year while Navy has just eight.
The Tulane offense has lost 11 fumbles this season while Navy has lost 10.
The Midshipmen offense has registered three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Green Wave have put up nine such plays.
The Navy defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Tulane has given up six such plays.
The Navy offense has created 26 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Tulane has created 29 such runs.
The Midshipmen defense has allowed 17 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Green Wave have given up 13 such runs.
The Over/Under for Tulane’s last matchup was set at 68. The under cashed in the team’s 48-17 defeat to Houston.
Over its last three matches, Tulane is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
In its last three matches, Navy is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Navy’s previous game was set at 51. The over cashed in the team’s 37-29 victory over Tulsa.
Navy has rushed for 5.0 yards per attempt over its last three contests and 6.1 over its last two.
Tulane has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.1 over its last two.
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