I’m not sure when the last time this happened, but we have a unique confluence of events heading straight to our faces on NFL Championship Sunday. Both the AFC and NFC Championships are rematches of two of the best games of the 2018 regular season. Back in November, the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints had a 45-35 prime-time thriller in which New Orleans won. In October, the Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots staged their own granero en fuego with the Pats winning 43-40.
Things are a little different this time around, at least on the AFC side. The Pats won that match up with Kansas City at home. Now they’ll have to beat them on the road in Arrowhead stadium. The Rams have the unenviable task of trying to be the first team in NFL history to walk into the Superdome in January and celebrate a victory against Sean Payton and Drew Brees.
What do I think will happen? Find out below with your Friday Afternoon Quarterback picks for the NFC and AFC Championship games.
Related: NFL Betting Guide
SUNDAY
NFC Championship
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (-3, O/U: 56.5)
- The New Orleans Saints under Sean Payton are 6-0 at home in the Superdome in the postseason.
- The Rams lead the all-time series between the two teams 41-34, but are 2-3 in their last five match ups.
- This is only the second time in NFL history where the Rams and Saints have met in the playoffs. New Orleans won that first match up on Dec. 30, 2000, 31-28.
- No quarterback under the age of 25 has ever won the NFC Championship. Rams quarterback Jared Goff is 24.
- In his short career, Goff is 13-6 on the road with 32 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and a 91.8 quarterback rating.
- The Rams are 1-4 all time in the NFC Championship as a road team.
The Rams & Saints do it differently when it comes to offensive personnel.
The @Rams have scored a TD from 3 different groupings (11, 12 & 13), tied for fewest in NFL, while @Saints lead the league in this category, driven by their use of Taysom Hill & 6-OL personnel.#LARvsNO pic.twitter.com/6Sh9biSlmc
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 17, 2019
The only way there could be more history working against the Rams this week is if Giorgio Tsoukalos discovered an Ancient Alien pyramid landing zone under the Superdome. It’s been seven years since a road team won a conference championship. The Rams, in particular, did a nice job in their last two road losses in crowing the eventual Super Bowl Champions (the 1985 Chicago Bears and 1989 San Francisco 49ers). Still, I’m going with my gut here and, like Sex Panther cologne, 60 percent of the time it works every time. Rams 34, Saints 30
AFC Championship
New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, O/U: 55.5)
- The New England Patriots have not won a road playoff game since 2006.
- The Chiefs and Patriots have faced off against each other 36 times since 1960. Kansas City has a slight edge in the series, 18-15-3.
- The two teams have met in the playoffs just once, Jan. 16, 2016. The Patriots won 27-20.
- Tom Brady is 28-10 in the postseason with five Super Bowl championships and a career postseason quarterback rating of 91.4. This is, of course, Patrick Mahomes second postseason start.
- Bill Belichick is 28-11 in the postseason with those same five Super Bowl titles and eight AFC Championships. Andy Reid is 12-13 in the playoffs and made it to the Super Bowl only once, losing to Belichick and the Patriots in Super Bowl XXXIX
In their earlier meeting, the Patriots destroyed the Chiefs from 21 personnel:
Passing:
•80% success rate, 15.4 YPA, 0 sacks
Rushing:
•65% success rate, 5.1 YPC
YTD:
•KC is the NFL's worst defense vs 21 (65% success rate)
•NE has the 2nd highest usage rate of 21 personnel
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) January 15, 2019
Is this the end of the Patriots dynasty? If the Chiefs were coached by anyone other than Andy Reid, I’d solidly pick the Chiefs and not look back. Of course, there’s every chance that Kansas City wouldn’t even be here without Reid. Is it possible we’ll actually get the rematch of the Rams-Chiefs Monday Night Football masterpiece in the Super Bowl? Of course not, but I’m picking it anyway. Chiefs 42, Patriots 30
Last week
Straight up: 3-1
Against the spread: 1-3
Postseason
Straight up: 5-3
Against the spread: 4-4
Season
Straight up: 158-104-2
Against the spread: 129-135
