The upset-minded Iowa Hawkeyes fly into Camp Randall Stadium to play the unbeaten (3) Wisconsin Badgers in some afternoon Big-10 football this weekend. The game is set to get underway on Saturday, November 11th at 3:30 p.m. EST and can be seen on ABC. Line setters have the Badgers as a -12 point favorite and this matches over/under at 46.
The Iowa Hawkeyes surprised the nation last week when they upset the third-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes in decisive fashion 55-24. Some may say this was a letdown game for the Buckeyes after their great comeback win at home versus Penn State. Nevertheless, they allowed 55 points to the Hawkeyes and are now out of the College Football Playoffs.
The Wiscon Badgers have been consistent since the start of the college football season. Last week was no different as they methodically went about their business in a 45-17 beatdown of Indiana. After the victory, the Badgers improved to 9-1 but still fell two spots in the College Football Playoff polls. As of now, they are the Big-10’s only hope of reaching the Final Four to conclude the 2017 season.
When these two schools squared off in 2016, Wisconsin got the better of the Hawkeyes in Iowa 17-9. The Badgers hold a slight six games to four advantage in their last 10 meetings but three of the Hawkeyes wins have come in Wisconsin.
Iowa Hawkeyes (6-3)
The Iowa Hawkeyes didn’t care that the Buckeyes had found a way back into the College Football Playoffs. In fact, they laid the wood to Ohio State by scoring a season-high 55 points. The victory left the conference with only one undefeated team, the Wisconsin Badgers. Now, Iowa will try to repeat their performance and knock off the only Big-10 program with a chance to play for a national title.
The Hawkeyes may not be known for their offense but they proved to the country that they can score on anybody. Their defense also was electric, picking off J.T. Barrett four times in last week’s victory. Quarterback Nathan Stanley had a tremendous game, completing 20 of 31 for 226 yards and five touchdowns. He’s quietly having a great year, with almost 2,000 passing yards with 22 scores and four interceptions.
The Swiss-Army knife tailback Akrum Wadley made some big plays in the win at home last weekend. Overall, he concluded his day with 118 rushing yards along with three catches for 40 receiving yards. The senior running back is a threat when taking handoffs, rushing for at least 90 yards in three of his last four games. Through nine games, Wadley has rushed for 761 yards and has caught 22 passes for 308 more. He has reached pay-dirt a combined eight times in 2017.
Iowa uses three pass-catchers to move the chains when they decide to look downfield for some production. Matt Vandeberg and Nick Easily make a nice one-two punch. Together, they have combined for 60 catches for 714 yards and six scores. Tight end Noah Fant also is a red zone threat. This year, the 6’5 beast of a man has caught 23 passes for 353 yards with seven end zone appearances. He has developed into one of the top three tight ends in the country.
The Iowa defense was sturdy against a talented Ohio State offense. In fact, they held the Buckeyes to a season-low 24 points. Furthermore, they limited them to 4 for 10 on their third down conversions. So far, Iowa ranks 16th in the country, giving up just 18 points per game. The Hawkeye defense is going to give them a fighting chance to pull off another huge upset on Saturday.
(3) Wisconsin Badgers (9-0)
The Buckeyes lost to the Hawkeyes and the Nittany Lions fell at Michigan State. Wisconsin could have fallen into that same situation after getting down 10-0 on the road to the Hoosiers. Instead, the Badgers came to life and reeled off the next 24 points. The Wisconsin Badgers look to improve to 10-0 on the season to remain in the College Football Playoff picture. The Wisconsin Badgers have also won eight straight matches at home.
Quarterback Alex Hornibrook is more of a game-manager. Against Indiana, he did just that by going 13 for 20 for 158 yards with two scores and one pick. Hornibrook’s only real issue is turnovers. He’s thrown for 15 touchdowns with nine interceptions and 1,728 yards. In fact, Hornibrook has four touchdown passes and three interceptions in his last three games. He needs to show that he can make some plays down the field for this offense to take it to another level.
It was another huge effort by tailback Jonathan Taylor. The outstanding freshman rushed for 183 yards on 29 carries with one score. Taylor could be in the Heisman talk now with 1,368 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns. He’s a workhorse that carries the Wisconsin offense. Last week, the Badgers rushed for 237 yards and converted 8 of 15 third downs with 24 first downs.
Wide receivers Quintez Cephus and Troy Fumagalli aren’t the biggest names in the Big-10. A lot of that has to do with the lack of production from quarterback Alex Hornibrook. Still, the duo has combined for 902 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Cephus leads the squad with 501 yards and six scores. A.J. Taylor also has 14 receptions for 231 more yards and two trips to the promised land.
Defensively, Wisconsin is allowing 13.3 points a game (5th) in 2017. They also are limiting opposing offenses to only and 267.8 yards per game (5th). Linebacker D’Cota Dixon leads the Wisconsin Badgers with 46 tackles, defensive end Garret Dooley has 6.5 sacks and corner Joe Ferguson has four interceptions.
Prediction
When this line came out I’ll have to admit I was a bit shocked. The Hawkeyes have played almost everybody they have faced tough. Furthermore, the Wisconsin Badgers are far from a balanced offense. Apparently, odds gurus think that the Badgers will be able to run the ball effectively enough to cover the 12 point spread. Well, I don’t. I do think they will get there yardage on the ground but the lack of a passing game makes it hard for me to take the home favorite here.
Look, there is little doubt that Wisconsin boasts the better defense of the two. In fact, they have one of the five best defenses in the FBS. Still, Nathan Wadley has been really good and he is especially smart with the football. Alex Hornibrook can’t say that. I honestly don’t see either of these teams having much success offensively so I expect this to be a low-scoring grudge-match. I’ll take the double-digit underdog anytime in a scenario like that. Give me the Hawkeyes to cover in a close one but Wisconsin finds a way to stay undefeated. #moneytreesgrow @EriktheHun
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Trends
The Hawkeyes are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 conference games.
The Under is 5-2 in the Hawkeyes last 7 games overall.
The Badgers are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 home games.
The Over is 8-2 in the Badgers last 10 conference games.
Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
