The Boston Celtics evened the series and return home to face the Chicago Bulls for the fifth time in the NBA Playoffs on Wednesday evening, when they’ll try to steal the away court advantage from the 8th seed. All joking aside, Boston will be the place that this series could be decided, as the team that win this game will have two opportunities to advance.
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics Game 5
LINE: Boston -8 (-108); moneyline -350
Total: 202 points (+100 over, -103 under)
The Bulls lose the advantage, but may have found an answer
The Chicago Bulls can’t be pleased with themselves after they’ve blown a hard earned 2-0 lead in the NBA Playoffs series, but as much as they wouldn’t bail out on it, it was Rondo’s injury that played a big role in the series turnaround. The Bulls tried to roll with Jerian Grant, but he again proved that he’s not better than a replacement level player.
The replacement was even worse, as Michael Carter-Williams played terrible on both offensive and defensive side. So before the game was 10 minutes old, Fred Hoiberg desperate look found Isaiah Canaan sitting somewhere between the towel guy and the first row fans. The Bulls version of Isaiah promptly air-balled his first attempt, but soon picked it up and ended playing 34 minutes. During those 34 minutes, the Bulls outscored the Celtics by 11.
The problem is, until the Bulls figured it out, they were already down 20, and not even Butler’s occupation of the free throw line (he was 19-of-23 for the game), nor Canaan’s ability to stay in front of Isaiah Thomas of the Celtics could have saved the Bulls.
They are the underdog in this NBA Playoffs series a reason, after all. But the gain could prove crucial in the following games as the Celtics were killing them on the pick and roll and would stray off the non shooting point guard options. Canaan is playing for a contract, seizing the sudden opportunity and tries hard on both sides. Of course, he’s far from a player who can win it for the Bulls, but at least he seems as one that won’t kill all chances.
But, back to the Game 4. The Bulls showed their major flaws in this one. They couldn’t hit a three, as usual, finishing the game with 5-of-24 outcome. Three of those were hit by Canaan, too. The bigs weren’t at their best either. Despite all the missed shots, the offensive rebounds that were Chicago’s bread and butter in this series were hard to come by. Coach Hoiberg also kept Felicio and Mirotic too long on the center position after Lopez’s first quarter minutes didn’t yield any gain.
Lopez was superior in both rim protection and offensive rebounding in the second half, and he was the one who sparked one of the runs that the Bulls used to chip away the big lead and, incredibly, take a brief lead of their own at 65-63. Still, they hit a dry spell and couldn’t stop Thomas in the next two or three minutes and quickly fell into a double digit hole again.
Offensively, the Bulls were led by Butler, who repeatedly penetrated the paint and tried to make it happen. He was good, but was also bailed out by the refs numerous times. Butler finish with 33 points and 9 assists. Mirotic has hit two long balls (out of 8 attempts) and got to 13 points, as much as Canaan collected. Wade scored 11, and Portis was visible with 8 points and 8 boards.
The Bulls took good care of the ball and were able to get to the free throw line, but just could not get the shots to fall. They did try something they might use more in the next game, putting Isaiah Thomas in the pick and roll and try to get him switched to Butler. It worked great the couple of times they manage to exploit it, as Butler is simply too big and too strong for Thomas to guard him, but the Celtics were able to cheat on it due to the fact that Butler doesn’t pose a perimeter threat.
It’s an uphill from here for the Bulls wagon, but at least they seem to have all the wheel attached.
Place: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
Date/Time: Wednesday April 26th, 2017. 8:30 PM ET
TV Coverage: TNT
Spread offense generates early gain, but it’s Thomas again to win for the Celtics
Whether it’s the improper ball handling like Bulls’ head coach claims, or the minuscule build, but Isaiah Thomas ability to drive into the paint and attack the rim has been the main reason the Celtics are back in the dance. Kudos to coach Stevens as well, for better game preparation and sharp eye to exploit the Bulls rotation and flaws of their defensive schemes. The first quarter was all pen and paper. Well, marker and a white board.
The Celtics have put two shooters in the corners, and had the third wing cut after screening to position them, moving the Bulls defense sideways and keeping it wide. Meanwhile, Thomas and Horford executed a deep pick and roll that has left the paint wide open. More so, both Lopez and Mirotic were out of their comfort zones, and once the Celtics penetrated the space created, the Bulls were unsure how to close it, over-collapsing and freeing up the Celtics shooters.
The Celtics have hit 7-of-15 three pointers to open up a 41-21 lead executing this simple plan. Of course, the Bulls confusion on the offensive end helped, and this would have probably be over by the halftime if not for the refs being whistle-happy. The Celtics would have trouble opening up their shooters to the same extent later in the game and also missed some open ones, to shoot just 3-of-22 on the deep ball for the remaining of the game.
But, staying more attached to the shooters allowed Thomas to create havoc in the paint. He finished with 33 points and 7 assists, and a game-high +17 plus/minus. He did have some silly mistakes in the third, committing turnovers and fouls, but made up for it shortly after when single-handedly ignited a decisive 12-0 run to close the quarter. Horford was great again, finishing with 15 points, 12 boards and 4 dimes, while the biggest beneficiary of the new tactics was Gerald Green, who scored 16 points in the first half before cooling of it the second. Smart and Crowder were also solid, playing hard and physical ball.
The Celtics finished with a 46.3 percent shooting and just 27 percent from the 3-pt territory. They did the hard work on the glass and held the ground defensively, neutralizing the Bulls efforts. They were able to get more on the fast break and showed resiliency to answer momentum changing Bulls’ runs. Yet, they’ll need their shooters to be more efficient in the next game to avoid falling behind again in the series.
Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics NBA Playoffs Game 5 Trends & Prediction
The Bulls failed to cover the spread in either of the NBA Playoffs home losses, and both games played under the projected lines, so they are now 44-42 against the spread and 34-51-1 against the over/under. They hold a slight edge on the road games where they are 23-20, while they play a similar higher percentage of unders regardless of venue.
The Celtics have not performed to expectations at the TD Garden in the NBA Playoffs so far, going 17-26 against the spread so far. They are 42-42-2 ATS overall. Boston went 41-41-4 against the over/under, but they tend to play slightly high number of overs at home, where they are 23-18. Their games average total at home is 214.6, almost four points higher than on the road.
Boston were favored in each of the four games in the NBA Playoff series and they are heavily favored to win again. The books are offering you an 8-point handicap against them, more than in the initial two games they lost outright. The public have jumped on the Bulls in this setting, probably encouraged by the possibility of the Bulls figuring things out with Canaan as the Rondo replacement, but don’t get to excited with it.
The actual fair line is Boston -8.5, so the smart money will be with the home jolly in this one, as the difference in overall quality and talent is too much to disregard. The under points window has sadly closed too, as the books dropped the line to 202 this time. While the public is going with the overs, you shouldn’t expect much better odds on the minus points. As much as I’d like to continue with it, the total point line has been lowered 6 points since the start of the series and it just doesn’t leave us enough of a value to take it. If you can catch it at 203.5, go for it, but don’t go below.
My Pick: Boston -7 (-133)
Total: (Under 203.5 points -106)
