The Nevada Wolf Pack (-13) aren’t traveling far to face the UNLV Rebels at Sam Boyd Stadium. This conference game is scheduled to get underway at 9:30 p.m. ET and fans can view the action live on CBS Sports Network.
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Rebels Betting Preview
In this Saturday Mountain West game, Nevada is projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 13 points. The Wolf Pack are also receiving -550 moneyline odds while the Rebels are +375. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 64 points. If the underdog strikes early, it will likely create a decent betting opportunity in-game.
The game’s O/U hasn’t moved after it was set initially at 64. Having said that, the opening line was 11.5 so square bettors are hammering the Wolf Pack.
The Wolf Pack have gained 2.8 units so far and are 6-5 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an Over-Under mark of 3-6-1. The hapless Rebels have lost 7.8 units this season. The team is 5-6 ATS and the over has hit in six of its games.
The Wolf Pack are 7-4 straight up (SU), including 5-2 SU against conference opponents. The Rebels are 3-8 SU overall and 1-6 SU in conference play.
When these two programs met last year, Nevada knocked Nevada off by a touchdown 23-16.
The Wolf Pack are coming off a 21-12 victory over San Jose State last week. The Wolf Pack D did its part in the win, holding the Spartans to just 170 passing yards and 30 yards on the ground. On the offensive side of the ball, Ty Gangi completed 19 passes for 314 yards, along with one TD and an interception. Toa Taua (121 rushing yards on 29 attempts, one TD) provided the ground attack while Romeo Doubs (five receptions, 105 yards) and McLane Mannix (four catches, 78 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.
UNLV just dropped a 35-28 game to Hawaii. As a group, the team collectively completed 10-of-24 passes for 87 yards and two touchdowns. Armani Rogers went five-for-15 for 60 yards and one touchdown while Max Gilliam was five-of-nine for 27 yards and one touchdown. Lexington Thomas (129 rushing yards on 28 attempts, two TDs) led the running game while Brandon Presley (three receptions, 27 yards) and Darren Woods Jr. (two catches, 17 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Nevada’s run the ball on 47.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while UNLV has an overall rush percentage of 60.3 percent. The Wolf Pack have rushed for 157 yards per game (including 151 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 22 scores on the ground this year. The Rebels are putting up 224 rush yards per game (160 in conference) and have 21 total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Wolf Pack might have the more disruptive lines up front. Their offensive line has given up only 16 sacks while the D-line logged 23 sacks. The Rebels offensive line has allowed 24 sacks and their defense has logged only 11 sacks.
The Wolf Pack offensive scheme has averaged 284 yards in the air overall (282 per game against conference opposition) and has 22 passing TDs so far. The Rebels have recorded 165 pass yards per game (207.1 in the MWC) and have 21 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, Nevada should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 127 rush yards and 249 pass yards per game. The UNLV D has allowed 265.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 188.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wolf Pack are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.52 to opposing QBs, while the Rebels have given up an 8.46 ANY/A.
Offensively, Gangi has put up 2,432 passing yards on the year, and has completed 195-of-329 attempts with 17 passing scores and eight interceptions. Gangi has a 7.07 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 10.99 over the past two games.
Toa Taua (703 rushing yards, six rush TDs, 129 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown on the year), Romeo Doubs (370 receiving yards) and McLane Mannix (726 receiving yards, six TDs) have all played significant roles of late.
In the home locker room, Max Gilliam has completed 107-of-199 passes for 1,146 yards, 13 TDs and seven INTs. Gilliam’s ANY/A stands at a mediocre 4.55 for the season and 7.44 over his past two outings.
As a group, Lexington Thomas, Darren Woods Jr. and Brandon Presley have collectively accounted for 486 total yards and five touchdowns the last couple of games.
RELATED: Week 13 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Prediction: Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Rebels
SU Winner – Nevada, ATS Winner – Nevada, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Nevada defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 31 times this season. UNLV has produced just 21 sacks.
The UNLV offense has lost six fumbles in 2018 while the Nevada offense has lost 11.
The Wolf Pack offense has produced eight pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Rebels have put up seven such plays.
The Nevada defense has allowed eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while UNLV has given up 11 such plays.
The Nevada offense has created 20 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while UNLV has created 23 such runs.
The Wolf Pack defense has allowed nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Rebels have given up 27 such runs.
The O/U for UNLV’s last game was set at 72.5. The under cashed in the team’s 35-28 loss to Hawaii.
In its last three contests, UNLV is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
In its last three matches, Nevada is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for Nevada’s previous game was set at 58.5. The under cashed in the team’s 21-12 win over San Jose State.
Nevada has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.5 over its last two.
UNLV has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.4 over its past two.
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