The Arkansas Razorbacks are hoping that Auburn University head coach Gus Malzahn is a hard-nosed disciplinarian. Want to read more about this? You’ll soon see what we mean.
Arkansas Razorbacks @ Auburn Tigers
Saturday, August 30th – 4:05 PM ET
NCAA Football Odds: Auburn -18.5
Why Arkansas Can Cover The Spread
They might be entering a situation in which Auburn’s head coach is trying to prove a point with a player, and could go very far in the attempt to do so, thereby unsettling the Tigers’ offense and the team’s rhythm. Here’s the actual issue: Auburn starting quarterback Nick Marshall, who led the Tigers to a late-game touchdown against Florida State in the 2014 BCS National Championship Game at the Rose Bowl stadium last January, is a Heisman Trophy candidate. Marshall is a lethal offensive force, a player who is not a polished passer but can still make plays in the passing game because he acts like he is running and can change things up at the last second. When Marshall decides to tuck the ball and run, though, he’s so explosive as both a straight-ahead runner and as a runner who can turn the corner on a linebacker or a safety who is late to the play or doesn’t take as direct an angle as he needs to. Marshall, though, will not start this game because Malzahn is punishing him for a citation on marijuana possession over the summer. It is not yet known how long Marshall won’t play, but if Marshall is held out for a whole half and not just one series, Auburn’s offense could face problems under new fill-in quarterback Jeremy Johnson. There are no guarantees about this game if Johnson plays the whole first half. Auburn could be out of sorts, and Arkansas could use Auburn’s waywardness to gain a foothold in this contest and perhaps keep it for a long time, much longer than anyone expected when this matchup was scheduled for Aug. 30.
Why Auburn Can Cover The Spread
They have much better athletes and are at home. The formula is simple for Auburn under Malzahn: No matter who plays, the system continues. Run a hurry-up-no-huddle offense. Get players in position to start the play. Run a lot of plays per game and cram in as many snaps as possible. Don’t allow the defense to substitute. Don’t allow the defense to change up its formations or take an extra break before the next play. Get offensive linemen who are not incredibly hefty but can move laterally and are really agile in their run-blocking methods and tendencies. All these things were put together by Malzahn in one season, and he lifted Auburn from a 3-9 record to a 12-2 record, from an 0-8 SEC record to the SEC championship in a win over Missouri. Auburn loses running back Tre Mason, but it brings back so many other players with even more experience than a year ago. This is a team that is expected to once again contend for the SEC. Arkansas is not in a position to do so. This remains a mismatch even if Marshall doesn’t play.
Outlook
If Marshall doesn’t play in the first half, Auburn maybe goes to halftime leading by 10 points. If Marshall then plays in the second half, the Tigers should still blow the lid off this game and cover the number easily.
Pick: Auburn -18.5
