A smart bettor knows to monitor line movements as the week goes along. Often when the bet is made is nearly as important as whom the bet is on. Here are Week 10’s biggest spread moves and the likely reasons for said moves.
Washington Redskins (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opening: Washington Redskins (EVEN) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Look no further than Washington’s injury report to explain this one. Both guards, Brandon Scherff and Shawn Lauvao, are out for the season, along with top receiver Paul Richardson. Trent Williams will miss a few more games as well. Word is Washington’s starting left guard this week will either be Jonathan Cooper or Luke Bowanko, who both signed on Monday. No doubt the bettors who moved this line three points expect Tampa’s defensive line to dominate.
Miami Dolphins (+10) at Green Bay Packers
Opening: Miami Dolphins (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers
The main thing at play here is likely the opportunity to bet against Brock Osweiler, who put up huge numbers in his first start against the Bears but has gotten progressively worse over his last three games. Last week’s 13-6 win over the Jets featured 15 completions on 24 attempts for 139 yards en route to seven first downs and no offensive touchdowns. The case against the Packers is only one of their three wins was by more than three points and they could be distracted by their upcoming trip to Seattle on Thursday night.
Dallas Cowboys (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Opening: Dallas Cowboys (+4.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Dallas defense tends to succeed or fail based on Sean Lee’s injury status. Lee is scheduled to miss four-to-six weeks, meaning we can likely expect the NFL’s third-ranked scoring defense to take a step back. Their 26th-ranked scoring offense would have to pick up the slack against the Eagles, who have a formidable defense as well.
Buffalo Bills (+7) at New York Jets
Opening: Buffalo Bills (+9) at New York Jets
Money is coming in on the Bills, if you can believe it. The Jets were somehow even worse than the Dolphins last week, thanks largely to Sam Darnold’s four interceptions. Now Darnold is injured, meaning Josh McCown will start for the Jets. If McCown is somehow worse, then the Jets shouldn’t be favored by nine over anyone. There’s also an outside chance Josh Allen returns this week and puts an end to the Nathan Peterman nightmare. Either way, the Bills are difficult to trust. Buffalo’s offense has scored one touchdown and four field goals in its last three games.
Seattle Seahawks (+10) at Los Angeles Rams
Opening: Seattle Seahawks (+8.5) at Los Angeles Rams
Seattle already lost to the Rams at home and they have an upcoming Thursday game with the Packers. At 8-1, the public is certainly willing to put money on the Rams. The bad news is they’ve covered just one of their last six games and they could have their own “looking ahead” issues. The Rams face Kansas City on Monday night next week.
Detroit Lions (+6.5) at Chicago Bears
Opening: Detroit Lions (+5) at Chicago Bears
The Lions have lost two in a row and failed to score a touchdown in their first game without Golden Tate. The Bears crushed the Jets and Bills over that stretch without Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson. They’re both on track to return this week. The bad news for the Bears is they’ve only beaten Detroit once in their last 10 games.
Carolina Panthers (+4) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Opening: Carolina Panthers (+5.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Iit’s interesting that money is coming in on Carolina considering all of the trends going in Pittsburgh’s favor. They’re 3-0 against the Panthers in the Roethlisberger era and their smallest margin of victory was 18. They’ve also won 13 of their last 14 primetime games. Meanwhile, the Panthers have won five of their last 26 road games against teams with winning records. Though, to their credit, they did pick up road wins against Philadelphia earlier this year and New England last year. Perhaps their biggest problem would be the loss of Ryan Kalil, who hasn’t practiced and will be a game-time decision. But there are those who would suggest these teams are about even, so it makes sense to take the points, especially in a Thursday game when seemingly anything can happen
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