As we move past the midway mark of September, we’re starting to see teams solidify identities. Week 3 will be a telling sign to indicate which direction teams are heading into – particularly for teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, who are welcoming back star quarterback Carson Wentz. We’ll start with them as we piece together our NFL Week 3 parlay free pick.
The Favorite
Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles
Odds: Eagles -7
With our first play of the week, consider the defending Super Bowl champions at home. They just received word that Carson Wentz, their star quarterback and the engine behind their offense, will be back in the starting lineup against the Indianapolis Colts. Indianapolis did win at Washington in Week 2, but the Colts’ offense has not been supremely potent or effective, averaging a modest 22 points per game. The Eagles have a strong defense, one that should be pissed after getting torched by Ryan Fitzpatrick last week. Look for a bounce-back effort from them – especially at home. If they can perform close to their standards, the Colts probably won’t top 20 points. As long as Wentz isn’t too rusty, the Eagles will not only win but probably cover.
Pick: Eagles -290
The Underdog
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns
Odds: Browns -3
There will be bettors who like the Browns this week because absent of terrible field goal kicking, this team could legitimately be 2-0. However, the Browns still haven’t won a game this season and that’s a big deal. They are still in that mindset where they don’t trust themselves in late-game situations. They still don’t finish what they started — they still don’t make a lot of good decisions on the field. And while it’s true that a lot of it can be pinned on the now-released Zane Gonzalez, there were other issues – like Tyrod Taylor’s late-game interception last week.
The Jets struggled in Week 2 after such a convincing effort in Week 1. That reminds us that they’re still a young team that’s growing up. They’re better than what they showed last week and this is a much more manageable game for them. Given how the Browns lost last week, the Jets will probably be a little more focused in this game on a short week.
Pick: Jets +150
The Total
Cincinnati Bengals at Carolina Panthers
Odds: 44
The Panthers’ first home game was a 16-8 game against Dallas. The wheels came off the wagon last week a little bit as they gave up 31 to the Atlanta Falcons, but their Week 3 opponent is a good matchup for their defense. The Bengals, who are about as shaky of a 2-0 team as you’ll find, have to go on the road this week without running back Joe Mixon. Playing away from home without a reliable ground game is always tough in the NFL. Add in the fact that the Panthers offense hasn’t looked consistently crisp early on and we should have ourselves an under.
Pick: Under 44 -10
The Point Spread
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
Odds: Ravens -5
Neither team has a particularly good offense, but why are the Ravens giving five points after Joe Flacco’s poor performance against Cincinnati in Week 2? It’s likely because the Ravens are a much stronger team at home than on the road. They are 16-2 in September games under Joe Flacco.
Denver beat Seattle and Oakland at home. This will be their first road game of the season and they’re not a team that typically travels well. They’ve also survived four Case Keenum interceptions through two weeks. If he keeps turning it over like that, the Broncos won’t have a winning record for long.
Pick: Ravens -5
