There are some big games on tap for Week 9, including the Green Bay Packers visiting the New England Patriots, another episode of the Pittsburgh Steelers-Baltimore Ravens rivalry and the two current NFC favorites – the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints – squaring off. All of those games seem like they’ll be close contests, so we’ve left them out of our NFL Week 9 parlay. Here are the games that we do like:
The Favorite
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Odds: Vikings -5.5
Related: NFL Betting Guide | Parlay Betting
This seems like one of the more solid picks for a favorite this weekend. The Vikings did just lose to the New Orleans Saints. However, the Lions are a real mess, sitting at 3-4 and being the only NFC North team with a negative point differential – minus-15 – at this point in the season. These two offenses are roughly the same in points scored per game, but the Vikings allow two fewer points per game on defense. They Vikings will also play this game at home, which is generally worth six points relative to a road game and three points relative to a neutral field. The Vikings have already lost twice at home this year, which could lead one to pick against them, but consider the low odds of the Vikings losing consecutive games at home. Take Minnesota.
Pick: Vikings -5.5
The Underdog
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
Odds: Seahawks -1
The Chargers have one of the better defensive lines in the NFL, especially with the pass rush. Seattle’s offensive line has surpassed expectations, but this game figures to be a tough challenge for that unit against Los Angeles’ front four. Seattle has gone 8-5 in its last 13 road games, but the Seahawks are only 5-5 in their last 10 home games. They have lost the strong hold on home field which used to propel them to the Super Bowl, or at least deep into the NFC playoffs. Thinking the Seahawks are a reliable home team is an outdated notion. Take the Bolts on the road.
Pick: Chargers +1
The Total
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos
Odds: 47.5
The Texans are 5-3, and the Broncos are struggling at 3-5, but you need to realize that the Texans are simply living right in a way which does not seem sustainable. The Texans have played multiple overtime games this season and won each of them. They needed crucial mistakes from the Indianapolis Colts and Dallas Cowboys to come out on the winning side of those games. They also benefited from the unexpected collapse of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Texans have played bad teams and beaten many of them by very small margins, not very impressively.
The Broncos, on the other hand, have played the Kansas City Chiefs twice and the NFL-best Los Angeles Rams – the league’s only unbeaten team – once. Almost every NFL team would go 0-3 in three games against those two teams. The Texans are not as good as their record and the Broncos aren’t as bad. Take Denver.
Pick: Under 47.5
The Point Spread
Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers
Odds: 49ers -3
The Raiders looked bad against the Indianapolis Colts, but the 49ers looked just as bad against the Arizona Cardinals this past weekend. The Colts at least have Andrew Luck and more upside on offense. The Cardinals have been a more dysfunctional team than the Colts, so the Niners’ loss seems like a worse result.
The Niners rank 28th in the NFL in scoring defense and the Raiders are 31st. The Niners are 23rd in scoring offense and the Raiders are 27th. The Niners rate as slightly better in both categories, but remember that the Niners started the season with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback and have become sharply worse after his injury knocked him out. One must account for that change and realize that the Raiders should not be underdogs against San Francisco. Take Oakland against the spread.
Pick: Raiders +3
