No player is without risk in fantasy sports. At any given moment, a player can land awkwardly and injure themselves. Some other players just reach a point in their career and witness a sudden decline. Going into the 2017-18 season, all these players are must owns in fantasy. However, they have more risk, whether due to age or injury history, than many similar level players at their positions. If you draft any of these players, it is smart to have a contingency plan in case they do not have the season you expect.
Erik Karlsson, D, Ottawa Senators
As great and talented as Erik Karlsson is, entering this season there is some uncertainty about his health, which is always a red flag. Karlsson is doubtful to start the season and his exact return time is not set. Karlsson helped the Senators overachieved last season and without Karlsson, there is almost no chance the team could have made the Eastern Conference Finals. If the Senators start slow, Karlsson could feel the need to rush back, which could lead him to aggravate further his injury. Karlsson also lost his defensive partner from last season and without any games played in the preseason, he will join his new linemate with limited chemistry. A step backwards for Karlsson this season is highly realistic.
Steven Stamkos, C, Tampa Bay Lightning
As great as Steven Stamkos has been in his career, he has missed substantial time in two of the last four seasons. Since his first major injury in 2013-14 NHL season, his fantasy production has curved. Stamkos is still a great player when he is on the ice, he just is not quite as good as he was before his first injury. In his last three seasons, he has averaged fewer goals per game than his career average, which entering the 2017-18 is 0.55. He will be only 27 when the season starts, but we have seen time and again in sports, injuries take a toll and turn someone from future Hall of Fame inductee to just an average player.
Pekka Rinne, G, Nashville Predators
After helping the Nashville Predators make their first-ever Stanley Cup appearance, Pekka Rinne is coming into the 2017-18 with a lot of mileage on his body. Rinne is coming off a season that saw him start 83 games (regular season and playoffs combined), the second highest total of his career and a very large number for a mid-30s goaltender. Rinne was spotty in the Stanley Cup Finals, which may have been due to the pressure or due to his age. If it was age, the 35-year-old goaltender could see the inconsistency carry into this season.
Ben Bishop, G, Dallas Stars
Ben Bishop will be playing for his third different team in 2017, something that usually does not bode well for a player. Bishop is also coming off his worst statistical season, where he played at least 25 games, of his career setting a career low in save percentage at .910. Bishop could be in for another rough year as the Dallas Stars gave up the second most goals in the Western Conference last season. As a starting goalie, he is still highly valuable in fantasy. He just may not be the top-12 level goaltender he was in his prime with the Tampa Bay Lightning.
Jonathan Drouin, LW, Montreal Canadiens
There was a lot of pressure on Jonathan Drouin entering the season, but a recent injury hurts his outlook even more. Drouin was assumed to take over the first line left wing role for the Montreal Canadiens, but may now start the season on a lower line to limit his ice-time and decrease the chance of another injury. The Canadiens view Drouin as an investment and they may not pressure him to contribute right away. While that’s good for Montreal Canadiens fans, that’s not exactly good news for those playing NHL fantasy.
Expect less from Drouin, who only has 29 goals in 164 NHL games, than the lofty expectations showered upon him going into the preseason. Don’t overpay for him in drafts but he could be a buy-low candidate if he’s dropped a lot.
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