The NHL Playoffs are upon us. Let’s welcome the best time of the year by taking a preliminary look at the playoff series that lay ahead.
Atlantic Division: #2 Tampa Bay Lightning vs #3 Detroit Red Wing.
The Detroit Red Wings managed to slip into the playoffs and keep their postseason streak alive by the skin of their teeth. Only by virtue of the Boston Bruins getting their collective rear ends kicked by the Ottawa Senators on the last day of the season did the Red Wings manage to lock up the third divisional spot in the Atlantic Division.
The Tampa Bay Lightning looked to be jockeying for the Atlantic Division title, but some injuries late in the year sunk their chances.
Let’s take a look at the major deciding factors in this series.
Why the Red Wings will win: Special teams.
SB Nation’s Winging it in Motown did a very extensive breakdown on the Detroit powerplay going up against the Tampa Bay Lightning’s penalty kill, and vice-versa. It’s an incredible breakdown and definitely worth a read, but the basic gist is that the Red Wings’ puck movement will be key to exploiting the Tampa shorthanded unit, which has a tendency to allow plenty of cross-ice passes. Ultimately, it comes down to patience and poise. The Lightning love to use their high-speed, high-skill forwards to kill penalties, so the Wings cannot panic when someone like Ondrej Palat is barreling towards them. Detroit’s man advantage unit has been hot, and it could very well be their key to victory. It will not be easy overcoming the giant Ben Bishop, who boasts the third-best shorthanded save percentage in the league, but it is possible.
Detroit’s X-Factor: Jimmy Howard.
I am extremely curious at what point the Red Wings will consider pulling Jimmy Howard for Petr Mrazek in this series. Teams have had a quick hook for goaltenders in the past, so I wonder what the breaking point is. Howard has allowed two goals or less in seven of his last 11 regular season starts, but when he is off, he gets lit up big time. Howard is 6-5-0 in his last 11 starts; Mrazek is 5-5-1. It’s a marginal improvement. Especially when one considers that Mrazek was receiving Vezina consideration not as long as two months ago. Mrazzle Dazzle finished the year at 27-16-6 with a .921 save percentage and a 2.33 goals-against average. Howard went 14-14-5 with a 2.80 and a .906 save percentage. Howard stopped 31 of 34 shots in Game 1 and was tagged with the loss. The first goal was hardly Howard’s fault, as Nikita Kucherov placed a one-timer perfectly top-shelf, but the second goal of the game trickled through his five-hole in a netmouth scramble. Can’t happen.
Why the Lightning will win: Scoring depth.
The Tampa Bay Lightning will be without Steven Stamkos and Anton Stralman for the foreseeable future. While those are two gargantuan losses to the team- at 5v5, on the man advantage and shorthanded- the Lightning are such a tremendously deep team. The Lightning are now rolling with a top line of Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov and Alex Killorn. That’s not too shabby at all. Toss in Ondrej Palat, Vladislav Namestnikov and Victor Hedman and that’s still a lethal team. Jonathan Drouin has looked solid since being recalled too.
Tampa Bay’s X-Factor: The bottom six.
The top line is a handful on the Bolts, there’s no two-ways about it. But the same thing that is their strength is something that they are going to monitor as they march to the Stanley Cup. Tyler Johnson has had by all accounts a dramatically down year. Ryan Callahan, when healthy, is astonishingly quiet for a $6-million dollar player. The top six is laden with scoring threats. It is the bottom six that should be cause for concern. Can J.T. Brown start burying more chances? Can Callahan produce on the powerplay without Steven Stamkos on his unit? Can Jonathan Drouin hold together? Only time will tell.
Controlling the pace of play is going to determine the series winner. Detroit is quick, but Tampa is far quicker. The Wings need patience, the Lightning need to run and fire everything at a weak even-strength goaltender.
Prediction: Lightning in 5.
