Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints: Free Week 19 Betting Pick

Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The Philadelphia Eagles are coming into the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs as big underdogs as they prepare to take on the New Orleans Saints. This late afternoon game starts at 4:40 p.m. ET and you can tune in to the action on FOX.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Preview

Philadelphia is projected as the underdog and is currently getting 8 points in this NFC game. The Eagles are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Saints are -310. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 50.5 points, and if one team can create a bunch of points early on, it’ll likely create a reasonable in-game betting scenario.

This game’s total was originally set at 51.5, but the sharp action is pushing that number downward.

Both of these teams have been profitable this season as the Eagles have gained 3.8 units while the Saints are ahead 2.9 units.

The Eagles are 10-7 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Saints are 13-3 SU.

The Eagles just got a 16-15 victory over Chicago in Week 18 in which Nick Foles completed 25-of-40 passes for 266 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. Darren Sproles (just 21 yards on 13 rush attempts) led the running attack while Alshon Jeffery (six receptions, 82 yards) and Zach Ertz (five catches, 52 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.

New Orleans just fell 33-14 to Carolina a couple of weeks ago. The defense let the Panthers eat up the clock by rushing for 111 yards on 37 attempts, including two rush TDs. D.J. Moore put up a productive outing in the win for Carolina, posting 81 yards on four catches. For New Orleans, Teddy Bridgewater completed 14-of-22 passes for 118 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Dwayne Washington (108 yards on 11 rush attempts) spearheaded the running game while Michael Thomas (five receptions, 29 yards) and Tre’Quan Smith (three catches, 30 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.

Philadelphia has run the ball on 39.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Orleans has a rush percentage of 47.6 percent. The Eagles have run for 95 yards per game and have 12 scores on the ground this year. The Saints are putting up 127 rush yards per game and have 26 total rushing TDs.

If 2018 numbers can translate to this game, then it seems like the Saints may own an advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has logged 4.3 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.6 YPC to opponents. The Eagles have registered 3.8 yards per carry while allowing 4.6 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Eagles offensive scheme has tallied 282 yards/contest through the air overall and has 31 passing TDs so far. The Saints have put up 261 pass yards per game and have 33 total pass scores.

Philadelphia has let opponents rush for an average of 95 yards and pass for 290 yards per game. The New Orleans D has allowed 288.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 80.2 yards per game on the ground. The Eagles are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.45 to opponents, while the Saints have allowed a 7.01 ANY/A.

Offensively, Foles has amassed 1,458 passing yards this year, and has completed 68 percent of his 202 attempts with seven passing scores and five interceptions. He has a 6.36 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.35 over the last two outings.

We’re looking for Eagles to control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. In addition to receiver Alshon Jeffery (866 receiving yards and five touchdowns), Wendell Smallwood (331 rush yards, three rush TDs, 226 receiving yards, two receiving TDs) and Josh Adams (463 rush yards, three rush TDs, 25 receiving yards) have really been focal points in the offensive scheme for Philadelphia.

In the other locker room, Drew Brees has managed to complete 364-of-489 passes for 3,992 yards, 32 TDs and five INTs. Brees’ ANY/A sits at 8.47 for the season and 8.12 across his last two outings.

The Saints should also look to control the clock by turning to their backfield. In addition to Michael Thomas (1,296 receiving yards, eight receiving TDs), Dwayne Washington (154 rush yards) and Alvin Kamara (883 rush yards, 14 rush TDs, 709 receiving yards, four TDs) have gotten a lot of touches lately.

RELATED: NFL Divisional Playoffs Betting Odds and Predictions 

Betting Pick: Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints

SU Winner – Saints, ATS Winner – Saints, O/U – Over

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Team Betting Notes

The O/U for Philadelphia’s last game going into it was 42. The under cashed in the team’s 16-15 victory over Chicago.

Philadelphia has averaged 2.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.0 over its last two.

New Orleans has averaged 5.1 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.2 over its past two.

The New Orleans offense has lost nine fumbles this season while Philadelphia has let 12 get away.

In its last three matches, Philadelphia is 2-0-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

Philadelphia has won seven of its last eight games SU, with a six-point defeat to Dallas on December 9th accounting for the only loss over that span.

The Over/Under for New Orleans’ previous matchup was set at 41.5. The over cashed in the 33-14 loss to Carolina.

Over its last three contests, New Orleans is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The Eagles offense has produced nine pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Saints have accounted for five such plays.

The Philadelphia defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New Orleans has given up 14 such plays.

The Philadelphia offense has created seven rushing plays of 20+ yards, while New Orleans has created eight such runs.

The Eagles defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Saints have given up six such runs.

The New Orleans defensive unit has produced 49 sacks on the year while Philadelphia has 46.


Written by GMS Previews

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