The NFL season is almost at the halfway point. October is about to give way to November and the playoff push, but teams are still in a mode of discovery more than anything else. At this point, what is the balance of power in professional football?
AFC West
Some will say the NFC East should be here, and that’s a reasonable argument. However, the AFC West gets the nod because it is better in the middle. Dallas is a better team than either Denver or Oakland right now, and the last-place New York Giants have a winning record, whereas the last-place San Diego Chargers do not in the AFC West. However, Philadelphia and Washington would likely stack up at a disadvantage against the pass-rushing skills of Denver, Oakland and Kansas City. The AFC West has tougher defenses, while Philadelphia (Carson Wentz) and Washington (Kirk Cousins) have less proven quarterbacks.
Keep in mind that many experts like to use point differential as a gauge to determine whether a team is actually that good or bad. The AFC West is the only division in the NFL where all four teams have a positive points differential.
Also, even though the Chargers are in last place with a losing record, they have gained leads in second halves of a majority of their games. The Chargers’ point differential is +8. They don’t lose by large margins and play division rivals close. This is a team that could easily be 5-2 right now had they executed a little bit better in the fourth quarters this season.
Dallas might be the best team out of the eight in these two divisions combined, but the AFC West is a portrait of better balance.
NFC East
The argument about whether the AFC West or the NFC East is the strongest division in the NFL is a difficult one, but the argument that the NFC East is the second-toughest division in the NFL is an easy one. This is the only division in the NFL in which all four teams have winning records. That fact alone puts the NFC East in a higher class. The New York Giants and Washington Redskins are both 4-3, the Philadelphia Eagles are 4-2 and the Dallas Cowboys are 4-1. The worst team in this division – the Giants – has a respectable point differential at just -8. To put that in perspective, the average point differential of the last-place team in every other NFC division is -49.
However, sometimes a division with all winning records is merely an example of win distribution, in which all teams are better than mediocre, but no one team is excellent. So far, the Dallas Cowboys are excellent, having lost only once with a rookie quarterback, Dak Prescott, at the helm. There is some heft to this division, and the last-place team, the New York Giants, are legitimately dangerous with Eli Manning throwing the ball to Odell Beckham and other speedsters.
NFC North
The NFC North is unquestionably weighed down at the bottom by the awful Chicago Bears, but there is a real chance that in time, this division could overtake the NFC East for the most playoff teams in the NFC.
The Minnesota Vikings have been a great success story. They have one of the two best defenses in the league along with the Seattle Seahawks. They are a Super Bowl contender. The Green Bay Packers are not great right now, but they could easily become great if Aaron Rodgers kicks his game into high gear. They’re certainly not the kind of team that can be easily underestimated or written off. Then, the Detroit Lions – which made the playoffs two seasons ago – are riding a three-game winning streak, with two of the wins coming against teams with winning records. And remember, they’ve been decimated by injuries in the backfield, so if they can find a running game, they’d be even stronger.
If the Eagles and Redskins, both teams the Lions have already defeated, struggle over the rest of the season, the Lions could jump them, and the NFC North could get both NFC wild card spots.
