The NFL season is nearly 50-percent done. This is not a finished story, something that has run its course. It is an evolving dynamic and something that has some more twists in the road. However, this is not Week 3 or Week 4 of the season. We’ve progressed more than that. More information has been able to be gathered. What is the state of the NFL, and within that, which divisions are clearly lagging behind the others?
AFC South
There is no debate about the single worst division in the NFL. The Jacksonville Jaguars were picked to be a playoff contender by a lot of pundits who saw the young skill position talent on display and were convinced the franchise would engineer a turnaround. That has not happened. They have regressed to the point where they might be looking for a new head coach and a new franchise quarterback at the end of the season.
The Tennessee Titans have lost 10 straight games to the Indianapolis Colts and have a problem hanging onto the ball in tight games. The Titans look improved but are barely a .500 team – if even that.
The Colts have had problems finishing games. They’re competitive but frail. They also have one of the league’s worst defenses. They essentially put everything on the shoulders of Andrew Luck and if it works, they win. If not, they lose.
Even the best team in the division, the Houston Texans, is only 4-3, barely above the break-even point. The Texans are also a team that’s 4-3 only because it is 2-0 in the division. When the Texas go outside the AFC South, they are 2-3. They are led by a quarterback who has lost all of his confidence and there is even talk about the Texans benching Brock Osweiler – if you can believe that. They signed him to a $72 million contract in the offseason and this is where they are at now.
This is the one division in which the champion (probably Houston) will do no better than 9-7. There are no wild card contenders in this division. It is likely that three teams will finish the season with losing records. Only one other division has a reasonable chance of doing that in 2016.
NFC South
This is the other division which could very realistically put three teams under .500 by season’s end. In the AFC East, Buffalo or Miami should be able to go 8-8. In the AFC North, either Cincinnati or Baltimore has a decent chance of reaching 8-8 as well. In the NFC South, the New Orleans Saints and especially the Carolina Panthers have struggled. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 3-3, but two of their wins have come against 1-5 Carolina and 1-6 San Francisco. The three teams other than Atlanta will have to rally to turn their seasons around. As for Atlanta, the Falcons appeared to be a top team in the NFL, but after blowing a 27-10 lead at home against the San Diego Chargers on Sunday, the Falcons have to be downgraded severely. There’s no great team, the last-place team is especially bad, and the middle two teams do not have winning records. That’s a very poor division.
AFC North
The AFC North, like the NFC South, has a 4-3 first-place team, but the Pittsburgh Steelers are stronger than the Atlanta Falcons, which is why the NFC South is a slightly weaker division. It is true that the worst team, Cleveland, is worse than Carolina, but the middle teams are a bit stronger than the NFC South. Cincinnati is too talented to not make a run at some point. The Bengals aren’t great, which is why this is a weak division, but they are better than the Buccaneers. That’s the NFC South-AFC North debate for slots two and three on this list.
Why, though, is the AFC North weaker than other divisions? The AFC East has the best team in the NFL, the New England Patriots. The AFC West and NFC East and NFC North are balanced. The NFC West is not great, but the Arizona Cardinals are likely stronger than Cincinnati. Seattle is also a stronger first-place team than Pittsburgh is.
