The Buffalo Bills have won two in a row to push their way back in to the playoff picture in the AFC. Now they will have to find a way to upset the Oakland Raiders in a game with major playoff implications in order to avoid taking another major step backwards this weekend.
Moneyline: Oakland -170
Handicap/Spread Odds: OAK -3
Total O/U: 49.5
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 12/21/14 | BUF 24 – OAK 26 | OAK 7 | O 41 |
| 09/18/11 | OAK 35 – BUF 38 | OAK 3.5 | O 40.5 |
| 09/21/08 | OAK 23 – BUF 24 | OAK 10 | O 37 |
| 10/23/08 | BUF 17 – OAK 38 | OAK -3 | O 42 |
| 09/19/04 | BUF 10 – OAK 13 | BUF 3.5 | U 37.5 |
On The Bills Side of the Ball (6-5 Record, 5-6 ATS)
The Bills grinded out a tough 16-12 win in Cincinnati after A.J. Green was injured and then followed it up with a 21-14 win over Jacksonville this past week. Buffalo has done just enough to climb above .500 but will need to be better if they are going to beat the Raiders. LeSean McCoy sparked the Bills offense with 103 yards and two touchdowns and he will need another big game against an Oakland defense that has allowed 115.7 rushing yards per game this season. However, Buffalo still needs more from Tyrod Taylor and the pass offense in order to hit the Raiders with a more balanced attack and keep them from sending extra guys in to the box. The Bills defense will have its hands full with one of the highest scoring offenses in the NFL so it will be on Taylor and McCoy to try to keep up on offense.
Last 5 Results:
| 11/27/16 | JAC | W 26-21 | L -8.5 | O 43.5 |
| 11/20/16 | @ CIN | W 16-12 | W 2.5 | U 48 |
| 11/07/16 | @ SEA | L 25-31 | L 5.5 | O 43.5 |
| 10/30/16 | NE | L 25-41 | L 5.5 | O 48 |
| 10/23/16 | @ MIA | L 25-28 | L -2.5 | O 46 |
On The Raiders Side of the Ball (9-2 Record, 7-4 ATS)
Derek Carr suffered a dislocated finger that forced him to wear a glove on his hand in last week’s 35-32 win over Carolina. He looked like he would be negatively impacted by the glove when he returned to the game to throw an interception but he rallied for a total of 315 passing yards and two touchdowns to lead Oakland to victory in a game that went down to the wire. Carr should be just fine this week and he will have Latavius Murray and a formidable run game to help him out. The Raiders rank eighth in the NFL with 118.0 rushing yards per game this season so it won’t be a surprise if they attack the Buffalo defense with a heavy dose of the run. Meanwhile, Oakland’s defense has been suspect at times this season but they have done just enough to help string together five wins in a row. The top priority for the Raiders defense is slowing down McCoy and forcing Taylor to try to beat them over the top.
Last 5 Results:
| 11/27/16 | CAR | W 35-32 | L -3.5 | O 48.5 |
| 11/21/16 | HOU | W 27-20 | W -6.5 | O 45.5 |
| 11/06/16 | DEN | W 30-20 | W -1 | O 44.5 |
| 10/30/16 | @ TB | W 30-24 | W 1 | O 48 |
| 10/23/16 | @ JAC | W 33-16 | W 2 | O 47.5 |
Quick Analysis
Oakland is 3-0 straight up and would be 3-0 against the spread at home in their last three games if they had recorded one more point against the Panthers last week. Meanwhile, the Bills are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five road games so they should be able to push the Raiders in a game with major playoff implications. Each of Oakland’s last five games have gone over the total while the over has hit in five of Buffalo’s last six games so there is a good chance that the over hits in another high scoring game this week.
Prediction
Buffalo has earned some respect with back-to-back wins over Cincinnati and Jacksonville, but the Bengals were pretty beaten up in their loss and the Jaguars have been absolutely awful on the road this season. Oakland has strung together five straight wins and has won eight of its last nine overall so look for them to keep on rolling at home in a high scoring game that will likely come down to the fourth quarter with Carr making the difference with the game on the line once again.
If the line was any higher, we’d recommend to take the points with the Bills as their average margin of defeat on the road is 5.0 points per game but at -3, the Raiders are the play.
Pick: OAK -3
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
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