NCAAF Picks: The Texas Longhorns have shown marked improvement, toughness, and discipline under first year coach Charlie Strong and now look like a team that could pull off one of the most significant upset wins of the season. The TCU Horned Frogs are in the hunt for the Big 12 Conference championship and a shot at the first ever Final Four playoff but also have no margin for error. TCU Head coach Gary Patterson deserves considerable credit for adapting to the reality of spread offenses in the Big 12 and has enjoyed a huge rebound season as a result.
The Texas Longhorns will host the TCU Horned Frogs at Darrell K Royal Memorial Stadium with coverage on Fox Sports 1 starting at 7:30 PM ET. TCU enters the game as 7.5-point favorites.
Frogs Leap Back
TCU is coming off a couple of disappointing seasons as new members of the Big 12 Conference and were considered to be in over their heads. But when Patterson changed to a spread offense this past offseason the improvement has been immense. The Frogs are 9-1 straight up, 8-2 against the spread and 7-3 over the total. TCU is coming off a bye week that followed a 34-30 escape win at Kansas. QB Trevone Boykin is right at home in the spread with a 142.0 QB rating and a 4.9 yards per carry average. TCU is ranked second in the nation for scoring offense.
Looking Strong
It took a while but the culture shock of Charlie Strong is finally taking hold of the Texas program. Texas is bowl bound with a record of 6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS, and 3-8 under the total. The Horns have won and covered their last three games. Texas is coming off a bye that followed a 28-7 payout at Oklahoma State. Texas has shown good defense this year and ranks 25th in the nation for points allowed.
Matchup and Pick
Texas has covered the spread in four out of their last seven home games with just one out of their last 11 home games going over the total.
TCU has covered the spread in just four out of their last 10 away games with seven out of their last 10 away games going under the total.
Texas shocked TCU last year in a 30-7 stunner at TCU but prior to that the Horned Frogs scored a 20-13 win at Texas in 2012.
This is a different TCU team with a spread offense that has revitalized their program as an equal compliment to their defense. Texas has certainly improved and toughened up but their offense remains a liability.
TCU (-7.5) gets the call.
