Case Keenum has come a long way since signing with the Houston Texans as an undrafted free agent in 2012. The former practice squad mainstay and Jared Goff competitor on Hard Knocks is now making starter money on a two-year deal with the Denver Broncos.
Case closed.
Welcome to #BroncosCountry, @casekeenum7!
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— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) March 14, 2018
Keenum should be an improvement over what Denver had under center in 2017. That said, he shouldn’t be a source of excitement for fantasy players.
Reasons to Get Excited
Best Season in 2017
Keenum set career highs in completions, attempts, yards, completion percentage and QB rating in his lone season with Minnesota. Not only that, but he didn’t set a new career high in interceptions despite 160 more pass attempts than his previous season best. He led Minnesota to the NFC Championship game and, at 30 years old, he could have a few good years ahead of him. He’ll be worth using if he can build on his career year.
Denver Receivers
Though Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are now in their early 30s, they’re not far removed from being fantasy standouts. They may not match up to Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen at this point in their careers, but they’re more than capable of helping a quarterback. Each had a 1,000-yard season in 2016.
The Broncos can also expect help from tight end Jake Butt, who will be fully recovered from the torn ACL he suffered at the Orange Bowl in December 2016. Butt won the John Mackey Award and was considered one of the top tight ends in the draft before the injury torpedoed his stock.
Potential Draft Help
The Broncos hold the fifth overall pick, which will likely be the second (and possibly first) pick that won’t be spent on a quarterback. Denver could use it on someone that could help immediately, like running back Saquon Barkley or guard Quenton Nelson. Either way, Keenum would get some immediate help.
Even if the Broncos go in a different direction, like defensive end Bradley Chubb, this is a deep class. There will be plenty of running back help at the top of the second round. Sony Michel, Nick Chubb, Ronald Jones and Derrius Guice could all be available.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Pre-2017 Numbers
Considering his career as a whole, Keenum should be heading for regression in 2018. He had never thrown for more than nine touchdowns or 2,201 yards in a season before his turn with the Vikings. The massive spike (22 touchdowns, 3,547 yards) points to 2017 being more of an aberration than a sign of things to come.
Paxton Lynch
Trevor Siemian and Brock Osweiler are both gone, but former first-rounder Paxton Lynch remains. The Broncos traded up for Lynch and presumably still hope to get something out of him at some point. At the very least, Keenum will have a short leash. If Lynch is healthy and the Broncos aren’t playing well, it stands to reason Lynch will get a long look. Denver will want to know whether to target a quarterback in the 2019 draft.
His Best Wasn’t Great
Keenum was fine from an NFL quarterback standpoint, but his numbers didn’t translate into fantasy success. From Week 2 forward, Keenum was the 13th ranked fantasy quarterback. That’s not bad, but also not worth drafting anywhere before the final rounds.
Conclusion
If Denver can’t add more to a team that produced the 20th ranked passing offense in 2017, Keenum doesn’t look to be a savior. In all likelihood, this will be a step down from the career year that couldn’t make him a top 10 fantasy quarterback. Targeting Keenum as a streamer or high-floor bye week replacement is fine, but don’t expect much more than that.
