Justin Herbert stunned many people when he announced his intention to not only play in the Redbox Bowl on New Year’s Eve, but return for one more season in Eugene as well. The Oregon Ducks quarterback was seen as the top quarterback prospect in the 2019 NFL Draft by many and was slated to be a top ten pick. However, with so many stars leaving the PAC-12 next year, he couldn’t resist the chance at playing for a conference title and a spot in the College Football Playoff as well. There will be a lot of eyes on Herbert when the Ducks take on the Michigan State Spartans in Levi’s Stadium, and BetDSI has odds on how productive Herbert will be.
How many total touchdowns will Justin Herbert have against Michigan State in the Redbox Bowl?
Over 2 -110
Under 2 -130
When you first look at this number, your eyes might do a bit of a double take. Herbert is seen as the top quarterback prospect in the country, so he should be able to have at least two touchdowns in a meaningless bowl game, right? As Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friend.
Related: College Football Bowl Betting
Herbert had more than two total touchdowns in just four games all season. He lit up the Ducks’ weak non-conference foes with 13 touchdowns in his first three games, but he was responsible for just 17 touchdowns in nine games against PAC 12 teams. He only finished with more than two touchdowns once, against Utah, but to be fair he only finished under two touchdowns twice.
This will be one of the toughest defenses Herbert faces all year too. Michigan State had a defense that was capable of winning the Big Ten title this year, but the offense could not move the ball. The Spartans finished the regular season with the second-best defense in the country per S&P+, and opposing quarterbacks had a hard time moving the ball against this defense. Opponents averaged just 6.2 yards per throw, and the Spartans secondary allowed just 13 passing touchdowns all year long.
Another factor to keep in mind is the weather. Although the forecast calls for clear skies, there are expected to be constant winds between 15-20 MPH for this game. Wind can really affect quarterbacks, and this stadium has been one of the worst to throw the ball in over the years.
The final thing to consider before betting on this prop is motivation. Some teams are clearly not motivated for their bowl games, and they don’t spend the same amount of time preparing as their opponent. Oregon famously blew a 31-0 halftime lead against TCU in the Alamo Bowl three years ago, and that sting still resonates with some of the players. The Ducks should be motivated for this one.
Although I think the Ducks are coming into this game focused, I don’t like their chances against Michigan State. The Spartans’ defense has been fantastic all year, and they will disguise coverages and give Herbert fits. The ‘under’ is the play for me.
