The Milwaukee Brewers will do battle against the Cincinnati Reds at Miller Park. Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will be televising the matchup and the game is scheduled to get underway at 1:40 p.m. ET.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds
Cincinnati (+145) is coming into this one as the underdog against Milwaukee (-155) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this day game at 9 runs (-125 for the under and +105 for the over). Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the current runline odds sitting at Reds +1.5 runs (-150) and Brewers +-1.5 runs (+130).
The Reds have gone just 3-14 SU this year and are 7-9 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 9.5 units for moneyline bettors in this young season and 4.4 units ATS. Cincinnati is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Brewers, on the other hand, are 9-9 SU and 8-9 ATS. They’ve lost 0.5 units for moneyline bettors and 2.9 units ATS. Milwaukee has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.
Brewers games have had an over/under record of 8-9 so far in 2018. Reds games have gone under nine times, gone over seven times and pushed on zero occasions.
Tyler Mahle will get the nod for the visiting Reds. The right-handed Mahle is 1-2 with a 5.63 ERA and 14 strikeouts. He has yet to face the Brewers this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.
The Brewers are turning to righty Zach Davies (0-2, 6.75 ERA), who has 18 strikeouts and five walks as well as a WHIP of 1.50. Davies made four starts against the Reds in 2017, posting a 1-1 record with a 3.20 ERA and 14 strikeouts.
Milwaukee’s pitchers have given up 4.4 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The team’s starting pitching staff has a 4.35 ERA, 1.36 WHIP and 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 10.6 K/9. In 12 games against divisional opponents, Brewers starters have an ERA of 4.35 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.94.
The Milwaukee hitters have produced 3.4 runs per contest, including 2.8 per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .229/.293/.380 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.
The Brewers’ batters have been led by Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar. Thames is slashing .224/.309/.633 with 11 hits, six home runs, nine RBIs and nine runs scored, while Aguilar is batting .375 with nine hits, zero RBIs and five runs.
Aguilar appeared to have some trouble facing right-handed pitching at home last season, slashing .171/.244/.366 across 90 such plate appearances (his overall season line was .265/.331/.505).
For the visiting squad, Cincinnati’s pitchers have allowed 5.8 runs per game and its starters own a 5.70 ERA, 1.37 WHIP and 7.00 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.43, along with a K/9 of 8.60.
The Reds offense has slashed .226/.306/.330 on its way to 3.2 runs scored per game this season, including 3.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).
Backstop Tucker Barnhart and left fielder Jesse Winker have led Cincinnati’s offense. Barnhart is slashing .302/.423/.535 with 13 hits, four RBIs and five runs scored, while Winker (.237/.420/.237) is up to nine hits, four RBIs and three runs scored.
Winker seemed to enjoy hitting righty pitching on the road last year, putting up a slash line of .358/.414/.679 across 58 such plate appearances (his overall season line was .298/.375/.529).
The Reds have lost 8.7 units and are 5-8 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has hit in five of those games, compared to eight that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Brewers have netted 0.6 units and are 6-6 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in six of those games, compared to six that’ve gone under.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Brewers, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Trends
The Reds have hit five home runs in their last 10 games, including four over their last five.
Cincinnati has recorded 16.7 runs + hits + errors per game over its last 10 contests and 17.6 over its last five.
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