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Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Indians Free Pick 07/11/18

The struggling Cleveland Indians will try to avoid dropping their fifth in a row when they play host to the Cincinnati Reds at Progressive Field. The opening pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET and SportsTime Ohio will be showing this interleague matchup.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Indians Odds

Cincinnati (+182) is entering this game as the underdog against Cleveland (-195) and Vegas has put the Over/Under for this one at 9 runs (-105 for the over and -115 for the under). Runline odds sit at -120 for taking the Reds +1.5 runs and +100 for the Indians -1.5 runs.

The Reds are 41-51 SU and have gone 55-36 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 3.9 units for gamblers taking the moneyline, despite having gained 9.0 units ATS. Cincinnati’s covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the over has hit in five of those seven. The Indians, on the other hand, are 49-41 SU and 42-47 ATS. They’ve lost 10.8 units for moneyline bettors and 9.6 units ATS. Cleveland has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven outings and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

Indians games have had an over/under record of 46-40-3 so far in 2018. Reds games have gone over 46 times, gone under 41 times and pushed on four occasions.

Tyler Mahle will get the start for the Reds. The right-handed Mahle (7-6, 3.66 ERA) has recorded 97 strikeouts in 98.1 innings so far. He has yet to face the Indians this year and did not record a start against them in 2017, either.

The Indians will turn to righty Carlos Carrasco (9-5, 4.28 ERA), who’s got 103 punchouts and 22 walks to his name as well as a WHIP of 1.18. Carrasco only made one start against the Reds in 2017 (0-0, 5.68 ERA and six strikeouts across six and 1-third innings).

As a unit, Cleveland’s pitching staff has given up 4.2 runs per game overall in 2018. Its starting pitching staff has a 3.41 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 9.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 5.37 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 8.7 K/9.

The Cleveland offense has produced 5.0 runs per contest, including 5.7 per game over its last 10 games and 4.4 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .231/.293/.376 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that stretch.

Shortstop Francisco Lindor and third baseman Jose Ramirez have led the Indians’ batters this year. Lindor is slashing .296/.370/.568 with 24 home runs, 59 RBIs, 80 runs and 12 steals, while Ramirez is batting .290 with 25 homers, 60 RBIs, 61 runs and 19 stolen bases.

For the visiting squad, Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 5.05 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 7.37 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.06, along with a WHIP of 1.43 and a K/9 of 8.23.

Reds hitters have slashed .258/.341/.402 on their way to 4.7 runs scored per game in 2018, including 6.9 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (3-2 SU).

Second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza have led Cincinnati’s offense. Gennett is slashing .322/.369/.507 with 14 home runs, 58 RBIs and 56 runs scored, while Peraza (.275/.324/.375) has produced five homers, 31 RBIs, 50 runs and 17 stolen bases.

The Reds have lost 8.1 units and are 39-27 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 30 of those games, compared to 33 that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Indians have lost 14.8 units and are 28-36 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 32 of those games, as opposed to 29 that’ve gone under.

Cincinnati Reds at Cleveland Indians MLB Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Indians, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER

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Betting Trends

The over has hit in five of Cincinnati’s last seven games.

Each team has swatted 11 home runs over its last 10 outings.

Cincinnati fielders have 12 errors over the last 10 games, compared to five errors for Cleveland over its last 10.


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