The BYU Cougars, as an independent, play challenging schedules every year. The upside: If they do really well, they can get an elite bowl berth. The downside: If they lose more than two games, they will get a mediocre bowl berth. The team is always challenging itself, but if it can never pass the challenge, it won’t get the spotlight it wants. Can this team heighten its ceiling in 2017?
How Did They End 2016
BYU ended its season well, but the schedule was relatively easy: Cincinnati at home (won 20-3), Southern Utah (won 37-7), Massachusetts (won 51-9), and Utah State (won 28-10). The heavy hitters on the schedule came earlier in the season, and while BYU was competitive, it did not allow itself any real margin for error. The Cougars played their first five games within three points or fewer. They defeated Arizona and Toledo but lost to Utah, UCLA and West Virginia. The Utah and UCLA games were disappointing because the defense held the opposition under 21 points. The BYU offense needed to be good enough to win those games, but it sputtered and committed entirely too many mistakes. Later in the season, BYU’s defense forced a large number of turnovers from Boise State, but the offense simply couldn’t capitalize on most of them in a bitter 28-27 defeat. This season could have been 5-7 instead of 8-4… but it also could have been 11-1. BYU competed well in every game, but its four losses came by a combined total of eight points. That feels like a missed opportunity more than a good season. A win over Wyoming in the Poinsettia Bowl did offer a good consolation prize, however.
Offseason Changes
Veteran quarterback Taysom Hill and star running back Jamaal Williams have run out of eligibility. The program will especially miss Williams, who could be counted on to get the tough yards in any situation. Hill was extremely gifted, but injuries plagued his entire career. Tanner Mangum will be the new quarterback, but he has started many games in place of Hill over the years. He is essentially a veteran who will not find his role to be daunting in any way.
Team X-Factor
BYU needs receivers to get behind defenses and make the big vertical plays which will relieve the BYU offense of the need to slowly move the ball down the field. BYU’s lack of explosiveness is why it hasn’t been able to beat Utah or other good defensive teams in recent years. Improved receivers can change that dynamic and the hopes of the team.
What To Expect From The Cougars This Year
The Cougars fall into a similar pattern every year. They play lots of close games, but the offense dies in the fourth quarter just enough to prevent the team from winning 10 or 11 games. The margin of error is so small due to the normally tough schedules, and BYU is often not fast enough to gain the measure of separation it needs with its skill position players to win the way a championship team should win.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 9-4
2015: 9-4
2014: 8-5
2013: 8-5
2012: 10-3
Schedule and Outlook
The schedule has two parts, a hellacious first seven games and a soft final five games. BYU should win each of the final five games against San Jose State, East Carolina, Fresno State, UNLV and UMass. The first seven games are rough, though. In particular, BYU plays LSU, Utah and Wisconsin in consecutive weeks. After a partial breather against Utah State, the Cougars have to play Boise State and Mississippi State. It is hard to imagine BYU getting out of that stretch with more than two wins. Wisconsin and LSU are overwhelmingly tough. Utah has been a thorn in BYU’s side for a long time. Boise State is loaded this season. Mississippi State should be better than it was last season. If BYU can get to eight wins under this schedule , it will have done okay. The regular season win total is sitting at 8.5, which is a big bar for them to jump over. Go under the number.
Regular Season Win Prediction: Under 8.5
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