Few teams in the Big Ten will be more fascinating this season than the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The school went through an ugly off-field end to its 2016 season, making a coaching change inevitable. However, once the coaching search ran its course, the Gophers got one of the more attractive candidates on the market, P.J. Fleck, who had just taken Western Michigan to a New Year’s Six bowl game, the Cotton Bowl. Everyone wants to know how Fleck will change Minnesota’s culture. It’s a process which is likely to require some time, meaning more than one season. Yet, one season could certainly offer an indication of where this program is headed.
How Did They End 2016
The Minnesota Golden Gophers ended the season with losses to Nebraska and Wisconsin, sandwiched around a win over Northwestern. The Gophers built their season in the middle third, taking care of Purdue, Illinois, Rutgers and Maryland, the soft underbelly of the Big Ten. This team generally won the games it was supposed to win and lost the games it was supposed to lose.
Then came the Holiday Bowl against Washington State. A large number of defensive players were suspended for alleged sexual misconduct. Head coach Tracy Claeys publicly defended his players, but he did so before the investigation had run its course. Minnesota ran into Title IX problems and was disappointed that the head coach complicated the school’s public response to a very ugly set of circumstances. Claeys and his defense throttled Washington State in an upset victory, which appeared to have temporarily saved his job, but it turned out that the political fallout from Claeys’ statements was too great. Minnesota showed how great its defense could be… and also showed why a coaching change had to happen.
Offseason Changes
P.J. Fleck is the originator of the “Row the Boat” mantra. He is a coach with a ton of youthful energy in his mid-30s. He is a player’s coach and a very talented recruiter who now gets his chance to lead a Big Ten program. Many people think Fleck is destined for stardom in the coaching business. Minnesota gives him a great chance to prove it, since the Minnesota Golden Gophers haven’t made a Rose Bowl in over 50 years.
Kirk Ciarocca was Fleck’s offensive coordinator at Western Michigan. He has been brought along by Fleck to Minneapolis to be the Gophers’ offensive coordinator. Robb Smith will step in as the new defensive coordinator. If being a head coach in the Big Ten is a challenge for Fleck, it’s also a challenge for his play-callers.
Team X-Factor
Offensive line – in a new offensive system which is expected to be appreciably different from the previous coaching staff, the offensive line needs to hold everything together. The quarterback will need an adjustment period in Fleck’s new offense, so better pass protection could mean the difference between the right read and the wrong one. This is the positional unit Minnesota has to develop more than any other on the field.
What To Expect From The Minnesota Golden Gophers This Year
Minnesota is a true mystery team. The fact that the coaching staff changed is itself a variable, but the coaching change occurred after a big bowl win, not under normal circumstances. How the players react is such an unknown quantity. The gap between a best-case and worst-case scenario seems very large.
Record Last 5 Seasons
2016: 9-4
2015: 6-7
2014: 8-5
2013: 8-5
2012: 6-7
Schedule and Outlook
Minnesota opens the season with a manageable schedule with three of their first four games at home. They’ll beat Buffalo at home in Week 1 and then they’ll go to Oregon State followed by two visits from Middle Tennessee State and Maryland.
As talented as this team might be, the final five games of the season are against Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Northwestern and Wisconsin. Minnesota will have a hard time winning even one of those games. The schedule is simply nasty on the back end. Minnesota will need to be perfect on the front end if it wants eight wins. This year, that’s not a good bet to take.
Regular Season Win Total Prediction: Under 7.5
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