The Cincinnati Bearcats (-8) are set to pay a visit to the Smu Mustangs at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. CBS Sports Network is scheduled to televise the action and this AAC game kicks off at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Cincinnati Bearcats at SMU Mustangs Betting Preview
SMU enters this AAC game as a big underdog and is currently being given 8 points. The Bearcats are also receiving -340 moneyline odds while the Mustangs are +260. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 54.5 points, and if one team finds paydirt early on, it will likely lead to a nice betting opportunity in-game.
This game’s line opened at 8.5, while the total has not moved since being initially posted at 54.5.
Both of these teams have rewarded gamblers this year as the Bearcats have gained 8.0 units while the Mustangs are ahead 4.0 units.
The Bearcats have gone 6-1 straight up (SU), including 2-1 SU against conference opponents. The Mustangs are 3-4 SU overall and 2-1 SU in conference play.
When these two teams faced one another a year ago, SMU won by a field goal 31-28.
The Bearcats are on the rebound after a 24-17 defeat to Temple last week where Desmond Ridder completed just 14 passes on 33 attempts for 111 yards and one interception. Michael Warren II (132 rushing yards on 25 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Ridder (nine yards on 16 carries) mounted the ground attack. Bruno Labelle (three receptions, 27 yards) and Josiah Deguara (three catches, 25 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
SMU is coming off of a 27-23 win over Tulane. The defense let the Green Wave run for 168 yards on 46 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Stephon Huderson had a good showing in the defeat, posting 42 rushing yards on six attempts for Tulane. For SMU, Ben Hicks completed 21-of-40 passes for 291 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Braeden West (51 rushing yards on 12 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running game as Reggie Roberson, Jr. (seven receptions, 99 yards, one TD) and James Proche (six catches, 93 yards, one TD) led the receiving corps in the win.
Cincinnati has run the ball on 65.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while SMU has an overall rush percentage of 49.3 percent. The Bearcats have produced 248 rush yards/game (including 264 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 24 scores on the ground this year. The Mustangs are putting up 109 rushing yards per game (92 in conference) and have eight total rush TDs.
Judging by the results this season, it appears the Bearcats may hold an edge when it comes to effectiveness in the ground game. Their backfield has generated 5.1 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.7 to opponents. The Mustangs have rushed for 3.2 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.2 to opponents.
The Bearcats offensive scheme has averaged 198 yards through the air overall (208 per game versus conference opposition) and has 10 passing TDs so far. The Mustangs have produced 239 pass yards per outing (231.3 against AAC competition) and have 17 total pass scores.
Cincinnati seems to hold an advantage in both areas of the defense. The team has let opponents rush for an average of 114 yards and throw for 166 yards per game. The SMU D has given up 222.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 191.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bearcats are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.64 to opposing QBs, while the Mustangs have allowed a 6.61 ANY/A.
Offensively, Ridder has amassed 999 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 61 percent of his 133 attempts with eight passing scores and only two interceptions. Ridder’s got a 7.19 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 3.05 over the past two outings.
We’re looking for Bearcats to control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. The tagteam of Michael Warren II (673 rush yards, 11 rush TDs, 89 receiving yards) and Charles McClelland (206 rush yards, two rush TDs) have really been focal points in the offensive game scripts for Cincinnati.
Ben Hicks has managed to complete 69-of-133 passes for 844 yards, eight TDs and three INTs for SMU. His ANY/A sits at 5.35 for the season and 6.76 over his past two outings.
The Mustangs will also try to dictate the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to James Proche (519 receiving yards, six receiving TDs), Braeden West (394 rush yards, five rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Reggie Roberson, Jr. (16 rush yards, 316 receiving yards, two TDs) have seen a multitude of looks lately.
RELATED: Week 9 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Prediction: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. SMU Mustangs
SU Winner – Cincinnati, ATS Winner – Cincinnati, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The Bearcats offense has created three pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Mustangs have accounted for nine such plays.
Both teams have allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Cincinnati defense has given up seven pass plays of 30+ yards while SMU has given up eight such plays.
The Cincinnati offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while SMU has created seven such runs.
The Bearcats defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Mustangs have given up eight such runs.
Each team defense has produced 13 sacks this season.
As a team, Cincinnati has produced 5.4 yards per carry across its past three contests and 5.0 over its last two.
SMU has averaged 3.0 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 1.7 over its past two.
In its last three contests, SMU is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The Over/Under for Cincinnati’s previous game was set at 47. The under cashed in the team’s 24-17 defeat to Temple.
In its last three games, Cincinnati is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
The O/U for SMU’s last matchup was set at 55. The under cashed in the team’s 27-23 victory over Tulane.
SMU has won four of its last five games SU, with a -28-point loss to UCF on October 6th accounting for its one defeat over that span.
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