Our weekend of NFL Wild Card football will end in wintry Wisconsin as the New York Giants (11-5) take on the NFC North Champion Green Bay Packers (10-6) to wrap up the weekend. Kick off is set for 4:40 p.m. on FOX Sunday night.
We’ve had a little movement in this line since Monday. The Packers are always a popular bet, but their win streak, coupled with their TV-friendly offense has brought in a lot of Super Bowl action, not just bets on this game. The line opened -4.5 and moved to -5 with the totals gaining a half a point too.
It’s time to get pumped up and make this pick.
The Game: New York Giants at Green Bay (-5, 44.5 O/U)
The History
The series between these old NFL franchises goes all the way back to 1928 with the Giants beat the Packers 6-0 at old City Stadium in Green Bay.
The Packers lead the all time series 32-26-2, with the Packers winning the last match up back in October, 23-16.
The teams have met in the playoff seven times, but only twice since 1962. The Giants won both games at Lambeau Field and went on to beat the New England Patriots in the Super Bowl.
Of their other five playoff match ups, the Packers were 4-1, losing the first playoff game to the Giants on Dec. 11, 1938. Over the next three decades they would meet up four more times in the postseason with the Giants getting shut out twice, once my Vince Lombardi’s 1961 team, 37-0.
This is the first wild card match up in history of former Super Bowl MVPs – Aaron Rodgers and Eli Manning.
How the Giants Got Here
New York, for all its talent, hasn’t seemed able to get consistent play from its offense and it’s hurt them. In four of their five losses they were held to 19 points or less and scored 17 points or less in four wins. As good as he was, Eli Manning’s numbers were down this season. His completion percentage was good at 63 percent and so was his yardage at 4,027. His touchdown total of 26 was his lowest since 2013 and his pick total of 16 was his highest since that same season.
#OTD in 2008, Eli Manning won his first playoff game, a 24-14 Wild Card victory at TB. He completed 74.1% of his passes with 2 TD & 0 INT. pic.twitter.com/S4FpCpLc5C
— Dan Salomone (@NYGsalomone) January 6, 2017
The Giants made a habit of beating the Dallas Cowboys this season when no other team couldm but dropped a late game against the Eagles, 24-19, that all but assured they would be in the wild card game.
While the offense has sputtered at times, the money the Giants spent on defense paid off. New York’s defensive unit has held opposing teams to 20 or fewer points nine times and to 10 or fewer four times.
How the Packers Got Here
The answer to that question is as simple as Aaron Rodgers hoisted the team on his back and carried them to a six-game win streak to end the season. There was a time not long ago that it looked not only like the Packers might miss the playoffs, but that head coach Mike McCarthy might be on his way out. What a difference a quarterback playing his brains out makes.
Tom Brady scored 28 of the Patriots 51 touchdowns.
Aaron Rodgers scored 44 of the Packers 51 touchdowns.#MVP
— GBP Daily (@GBPdaily) January 5, 2017
McCarthy’s playcalling was a big part of what was wrong with the Packers’ offense early, but has he turned it around or has Rodgers just worked his magic? This six-game streak didn’t come over cupcakes, but over five teams still fighting for the playoffs including the AFC South Champion Houston Texans (who have the best defense in the league), the NFC West Champion Seattle Seahawks, the Minnesota Vikings and the Detroit Lions who played the Packers for the NFC North last Sunday.
The X-Factors
There’s one big X-Factor in this game and it’s Eli Manning. Manning is one of the best postseason quarterbacks in NFL history. He’s 8-3 in the playoffs, in spite of starting his career off 0-2. His two Super Bowl runs both came from the Wild Card position and were all road wins. Playoff Eli Manning has personally ended the Green Bay Packers’ postseason twice on his way to Super Bowl titles, outplaying both Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers.
The Pick
It’s so hard to go against Eli Manning in this game for me, knowing how badly he’s burned the Packers and the playoff field in the past. The Giants wideouts (with the exception of Odell Beckham Jr.) just drop too many passes. Neither team is a big danger to run the ball. Aaron Rodgers has been on fire and if McCarthy has learned from his shitty playcalling over the last few seasons, the Pack should roll. But I can’t believe it until I see it. Playoff Eli is like Freddy Kruger and I’ve got a feeling another Nightmare at Lambeau is coming Sunday night. Giants 24, Packers 23
Last Week
Straight up: 11-5
Against the spread: 9-7
Season
Straight up: 157-97-2
Against the spread: 124-28
To make a wager on this week’s NFL games, go to the world famous Diamond Sportsbook by clicking here.
