The Miami Heat (14-14) meet the Los Angeles Clippers (11-16) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 16, 2017, and will air on Fox Sports Sun.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 205.5 points with Miami opening as a 6-point favorite.
Los Angeles Clippers at Miami Heat Free Prediction
In the Clippers’ last contest, they were topped by the Washington Wizards, 100-91. Washington’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over Los Angeles. The Wizards had a rate of 0.483 (below their season average of 0.512), while the Clippers posted a mark of 0.429 (below their season average of 0.512). DeAndre Jordan put together a good performance for Los Angeles, recording 12 points and 16 rebounds.
The Heat were victorious over the Charlotte Hornets in their last outing, 104-98. Miami had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.571 vs. 0.470). Charlotte, meanwhile, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (23.9 vs. 13.9). With 11 points, five rebounds and five assists, Miami’s James Johnson put together a solid performance.
Looking at effective field goal percentage, Miami figures to have a noteworthy edge. The sharp-shooting Heat offense ranks eighth in the league in that metric at 0.528, while the Los Angeles defense is ranked 20th in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.525).
Los Angeles comes into the game with records of 11-16 straight up (SU) and 12-14 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has been spot on when setting the total of Clippers games, with an even split between overs and unders.
Meanwhile, Miami owns records of 14-14 SU and 10-15-2 ATS. Heat games tend to go under the O/U total (59.3 percent).
Jordan and Lou Williams have been playing well over the last five games for Los Angeles. Jordan has averaged 17.4 rebounds, 14.2 points and 1.4 blocks per game. Not to be outdone, Williams has recorded 25.8 points and 7.8 assists a game during that span.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Hassan Whiteside had 21 points and 17 rebounds and the Heat, who were 5.5-point underdogs, beat the Clippers 104-101. The game finished with a total of 205 points, hitting the projected point total. Miami had a better effective field goal percentage (0.524 vs. 0.443). Los Angeles, on the other hand, had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (40.0 vs. 23.8).
Los Angeles Clippers at Miami Heat Betting Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Los Angeles is 6-7 ATS on the road with 8 unders and 5 overs.
At home, Miami is 2-8-2 ATS with 6 unders, 5 overs and 1 push.
In games where they hold opponents below 100 points, Los Angeles is 7-1 and Miami is 10-3.
When reaching the century mark, the Heat are 11-5 and the Clippers are 9-11.
Los Angeles ranks eighth in second chance points per game (13.9) while Miami ranks 29th (9.2).
The Heat rank third in assists allowed per game (20.0) while the Clippers rank 21st (24.1).
Miami ranks fifth in fast break points allowed per game (9.0) while Los Angeles ranks 21st (12.6).
The Clippers rank 10th in points in the paint per game (45.7) while the Heat rank 25th (40.4).
Miami ranks first in three pointers allowed per game (24.8) while Los Angeles ranks 14th (28.4).
The Heat average 5.0 blocks per game, which ranks 11th in the league. The Clippers rank 22nd in blocks allowed per game (5.2).
Los Angeles ranks 15th in rebounds per game (43.6) while Miami ranks 25th (41.1).
The Clippers average 8.0 steals per game, which ranks 12th in the NBA. The Heat rank 17th in steals allowed per game (8.2).
Los Angeles averages 17.1 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 14th in the NBA. Miami ranks 19th in points off turnovers allowed per game (17.8).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Clippers have outscored opponents by an average of 0.4 points in their last five games. For the season, Los Angeles has been defeated by an average of 2.0 points.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 102.4 points per game (2.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 97.6 points per game (5.0 below their season average).
