The Denver Nuggets (13-7) clash with the Los Angeles Lakers (11-8) at the Pepsi Center. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, November 27, 2018, and will air on NBATV.
Denver opened as a 4-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 215 points.
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Prediction
In the Lakers’ last contest, they were 7.5-point favorites and were defeated by the Orlando Magic, 108-104. The total points for the game (212) finished under the projected point total of 216. Orlando’s offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over Los Angeles. The Magic had a rate of 19.6 (below their season average of 20.8), while the Lakers posted a mark of 12.2 (below their season average of 23.2). LeBron James led Los Angeles in scoring with 24 points on 8-for-14 shooting.
The Nuggets were victorious over the Oklahoma City Thunder in their last game, 105-98, despite being 6-point underdogs. The game’s combined points (203) came in under the projected point total of 217. Denver’s free throw rate was their largest strength over Oklahoma City. The Nuggets had a rate of 0.179 (matching their season average), while the Thunder posted a mark of 0.146 (below their season average of 0.192). Jamal Murray was Denver’s leading scorer with 22 points on 9-for-23 shooting from the field.
This is the second game of the season between these two teams. James recorded 28 points, 11 rebounds and 11 assists in the first matchup, in which the Lakers defeated the Nuggets 121-114, covering as 1-point underdogs. The game finished with a total of 235 points, which was just 0.5 points above the projected point total of 234.5 points. The Lakers had a better turnover percentage (11.3 vs. 15.9) and had a better free throw rate (0.207 vs. 0.174).
Los Angeles comes into the game with records of 11-8 straight up (SU) and 7-12 against the spread (ATS). Vegas is known to set the total high when the Lakers are involved, as 57.9 percent of their contests have gone under the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Denver is 13-7 SU and 11-9 ATS. Similarly to Los Angeles, games involving the Nuggets also have a tendency to go under the projected point total (65.0 percent).
Expect Denver to own the offensive glass in this battle. The Nuggets currently rank third in offensive rebounding percentage (27.1 percent), while Los Angeles ranks 23rd in defensive rebounding percentage (75.2 percent). Contrasting tempos will be on display in this battle. The up-tempo Lakers rank third in possessions per game, while the slower-paced Nuggets rank 24th.
Los Angeles Lakers at Denver Nuggets Free Pick
NBA Tip: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Lakers, O/U – Under
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Los Angeles is 4-5 ATS with 5 unders and 4 overs.
At home, Denver is 7-4 ATS with 6 unders and 5 overs.
In games where they allow under 100 points, Denver is 8-1 and Los Angeles is 3-0.
When reaching 100 points, the Nuggets are 13-4 and the Lakers are 10-8.
Denver ranks sixth in points in the paint per game (53.4) while Los Angeles ranks 28th in points allowed in the paint per game (52.1).
The Nuggets rank third in rebounds allowed per game (41.6) while the Lakers rank 24th (46.5).
Los Angeles averages 6.4 blocks per game, which ranks fourth in the NBA. Denver ranks 23rd in blocks allowed per game (5.7).
The Nuggets rank fifth in second chance points per game (15.7) while the Lakers rank 19th in second chance points allowed per game (13.8).
Los Angeles averages 18.3 points off turnovers per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Denver ranks 20th in points off turnovers given up per game (17.6).
The Lakers rank 2 in fast break points per game (20.473684210526315) while the Nuggets rank 14 (13.15).
Denver averages 26.4 assists per game, which ranks 4 in the NBA. Los Angeles ranks 16 in assists allowed per game (23.526315789473685).
The Lakers average 8.578947368421053 steals per game, which ranks 7 in the NBA. The Nuggets rank 18 in steals allowed per game (7.8).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five contests, Los Angeles is 2-3 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Denver is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over its last five games.
The Lakers’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.0, up from 1.5 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 106.6 points per game (3.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 103.0 points per game (0.1 below their season average).
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