A battle between unbeaten teams will go down when the (11) LSU Tigers take on Mississippi State at Davis-Wade Stadium in Starkville. The match-up between the two SEC schools is set to take place on Saturday, September 16th at 7:00 p.m. EST. The contest can also be viewed on the ESPN Network. Heading into this game, the LSU Tigers are a touchdown favorite and the over/under sits at 51.5 points.
The 11th ranked LSU Tigers have yielded only 10 points in their first two games. First, they dispatched of the BYU Cougars in a shutout victory. Then they pounded lowly Chattanooga 62-10.
The Bulldogs are coming off an impressive, 57-21 win over Louisiana Tech on the road last weekend. That victory came after they dumped their FCS opponent Charleston Southern 49-0. This game will be a great measuring stick for the Bulldogs up and coming offense. Last season, Mississippi State fell just short when they were defeated 23-20 in Death Valley.
(11) LSU Tigers (2-0)
Getting psyched up to play an undermanned opponent can be tough sometimes. Apparently, that was the case when LSU found themselves down 3-0 against Chattanooga before scoring the next 42 points.
Leading the charge was quarterback Danny Etling. Yes, you heard me right. Not Derrius Guise. Etling completed 8 of 14 for 227 yards and a score. In fact, five of his completions went for over 25 yards.
All totaled, he has completed 71 percent of his passes for 398 yards with one TD in his first two contests. Last season, the transfer from Purdue threw for 2,123 yards with 11 touchdown strikes and only five interceptions.
Tiger’s receiver D.J. Chark was the recipient of three of those passes from Danny Etling. The talented wide out turned them into 103 yards and a score. He also took a punt return back for another score in the victory.
Junior tail back Derrius Guice led the Tigers ground attack. He carried the ball 15 times for 102 yards and two trips to pay-dirt. Fortunately, LSU was comfortably in the lead by half-time so Guice got to rest up an extra half for this match-up. In 2016, Guice led the Tigers with 1,387 yards rushing and 15 scores.
Defensively, LSU is one of the better teams in the nation year after year. That wasn’t always the case last season. It appears that they are on the right track to returning to that status. The Tigers are allowing teams to just 169.5 yards per game and 31.5 yards per game on the road. Let’s not forget about the shutout of the Stormin’ Mormons in New Orleans to kick-off their season.
Mississippi State (2-0)
Mississippi State was a disappointing 6-7 last season and just 3-5 in the SEC West. To combat those numbers, the Bulldogs have fully turned over their offense to quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. The feisty baller has responded, throwing for 363 yards on 28 completions and five touchdowns with one pick.
The dual threat signal-caller also has ran the ball effectively, collecting 152 yards on 17 carries and three more scores. Fitzgerald will have to be at his best because LSU will be getting into the back field putting pressure on him to make throws out of the pocket.
At running back, Aenis Williams has 190 yards this season to lead the Bulldogs. The junior ran for 720 yards last season and scored four times. Mississippi State has to utilize the run game to prevent the Tigers from pinning their ears back and rushing the quarterback on almost every possession.
Nick Fitzgerald is finding more ways to distribute the football to his receivers in 2017. So far, seven different wide outs have caught at least two balls and five different receivers have scored a touchdown. Donald Gray has emerged as his favorite receiver, grabbing seven balls for 76 yards and a score.
Unlike LSU, the Bulldogs’ defense was horrific in 2016. As a result, they allowed almost 460 yards per game overall. This season, the squad is giving up just 217.5 yards per game and just 89 yards through the air. Then again, that’s in just two games against Charleston Southern and Louisiana Tech, but Mississippi State will take it for now.
Prediction
Although Mississippi State’s offensive output has been impressive over the first couple of weeks, Louisiana Tech and Charleston Southern aren’t necessarily a good measuring stick. LSU is one of the toughest all-around teams in the country and will test Nick Fitzgerald’s decision making capability.
If the Bulldogs can move the chains and build some confidence, this game could stay close for all four quarters. On the other hand, if the Bulldogs start getting dominated up front then they will have to rely on an untested defense to stop a surging Danny Etling.
Odds gurus set this line at seven points and I believe there is a good reason for that. That reason is they are starting to see the potential in Mississippi States quarterback. I believe that the Tigers could be a score better but that it will be close because of the 51.5 point total.
I’m going out on a limb and taking the upside here with Nick Fitzgerald and the Bulldogs’ offense. I think they can find a way to score on LSU and I’m still not convinced that the Tigers have solved their offensive riddles. That can only help the Bulldogs’ defense. Take Mississippi State and the +7 or just by it up a half point and see what Nick Fitzgerald and company are made of.
Trends
The Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
The Tigers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The Under is 7-2-2 in the Tigers last 11 games on grass.
The Under is 13-4-2 in the Tigers last 19 games overall.
The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
The Bulldogs are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
The Over is 5-0 in the Bulldogs last 5 conference games.
The Over is 5-1 in the Bulldogs last 6 games on grass.
Join the Rainmaker and myself for our seventh edition of our College Football Throwdown on Thursday, September 14th. We will be covering all the upcoming action for Saturday’s games. We also will be giving our dog picks of the week. Last week, both EJ and I were a combined 4-0 in our outright dog win picks and are nailing the action over 60 percent of the time.
