It’s one of the biggest stories in college football this season: Will Tom Herman, the most interesting and publicized head coach in the sport last year from a Group of Five conference at Houston, become the next great head coach in college football at Texas? Herman was viewed as the most desirable coach on the market. The Texas Longhorns outfought LSU to win his services. Now comes the time for Herman to deliver on his considerable promise. He has to be able to show that he has the Longhorns headed in the right direction.
Details
Odds: Longhorns -19
Date & Time: Saturday, September 2nd – 12:00 PM ET
Location: Darrell K. Royal Memorial Stadium
Broadcast: Fox Sports 1
Reasons To Bet On The Maryland Terrapins
The biggest reason to bet on Maryland is that Texas is a work in progress. Last year’s team failed to make a bowl game, meaning that while talent might exist on the roster, it is raw and under-developed talent. Texas is in a transitional stage, and season openers have long been known as occasions in which uncertain teams struggle and play very ragged football. Texas will probably not look very good in September this season. The Longhorns might become a very strong team in November, but they will need time to adjust to a new system under a new coaching staff. This is almost always how teams respond to incoming head coaches. Maryland can reap the benefits of Texas’ flaws and deficiencies.
Maryland also has a strong rushing offense. Ty Johnson rushed for over 1,000 yards last season. If Maryland can run the ball with a reasonable degree of efficiency, it can keep Texas’ offense off the field and shorten the game. Texas wants to run a lot of plays per game under Herman. Maryland can play keep-away and, if nothing else, make it hard for Texas to gather a lot of possessions. The Terps can keep this game close and under the spread.
Reasons To Bet On The Texas Longhorns
Maryland, in the Big Ten, does not typically face a passing game as potent as the one Texas has. Maryland plays Penn State, but in 2016, the Big Ten East did not feature any other passing game as strong as the Nittany Lions. Texas, like most Big 12 Conference teams, is very competent at throwing the ball down the field for big plays. Shane Buechele, the starting quarterback, is ready to make a big leap forward this season. Herman is known in college football circles for developing quarterbacks and getting the most out of their talent. He did this at Ohio State when he was the offensive coordinator for Urban Meyer, and he did this when he was the head coach at Houston. He turned Greg Ward from an athlete playing quarterback into a true quarterback who was also a great athlete.
Maryland will have to make a lot of defensive adjustments to what Texas and Herman do. It will be hard for the Terrapins to keep pace in this game.
Outlook
The Texas Longhorns should win, but 19 is a lot of points to concede for a Texas team which has a lot of question marks. The Longhorns will likely need at least one quarter, if not the whole first half, to settle in and play the way they want to on offense. Unless Texas gets a fast start, Maryland can find soft spots in a Texas defense which was highly inconsistent last year. The Longhorns might become a very strong team by the time this season is over, but they are just starting to understand what it takes to win under their new coach.
These are the types of games where the public splits up reality versus the hype. The hype says Texas should roll in this spot. Reality is that these types of transitions – with a new staff, new pieces in place – takes time. With a smaller number – maybe around -10 – we’d be inclined to roll with Texas. At this price, we’ll project a Maryland cover, but losing by two touchdowns.
Prediction: Terrapins +19
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