The Brooklyn Nets (6-8) take on the Miami Heat (5-8) at the Barclays Center. The game will air on YES Network at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 14, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 219.5 points with Miami opening as a 2-point favorite.
Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets Betting Prediction
The Heat are hoping to rebound after not being able to cover as 2.5-point favorites in their 124-114 loss to the Philadelphia 76ers in their last contest. The game’s combined points (238) were over the projected point total of 224.5. Philadelphia’s turnover percentage was their biggest strength over Miami. The 76ers had a rate of 8.2 (better than their season average of 14.2), while the Heat posted a mark of 14.1 (above the 9.8 mark opponents have averaged against Philadelphia this season). Goran Dragic led Miami in scoring with 22 points on 8-for-15 shooting.
In the Nets’ last matchup, they were beaten by the Minnesota Timberwolves, 120-113. They were unable to cover as 4.5-point underdogs. The total points for the game (233) finished over the projected point total of 226.5. Minnesota made good use of their 31 trips to the charity stripe, converting on 26 of them (83.9 percent). Brooklyn, on the other hand, was just 15-22 (68.2 percent). Brooklyn’s D’Angelo Russell put together a solid performance, leading both teams in scoring with 31 points on 10-for-22 shooting.
After the Nets won three out of four games against the Heat last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last game, Brooklyn won 110-109. Getting to the free throw line was one of Brooklyn’s biggest strengths. They had 28 free throw attempts, while Miami had 21.
Miami comes into the contest with records of 5-8 straight up (SU) and 5-8 against the spread (ATS). Of the Heat’s 13 games, 10 have finished over the O/U total.
Meanwhile, Brooklyn owns records of 6-8 SU and 7-7 ATS. Nets games have no tendency in regards to the total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under.
Russell has averaged 16.6 points, 4.4 assists and 1.4 steals over the last five games for Brooklyn.
The offensive glass should be a huge edge for Miami in this matchup. The Heat currently rank fifth in offensive rebounding percentage (26.6 percent), while Brooklyn ranks 28th in defensive rebounding percentage (72.6 percent).
Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets Free Pick
NBA Tip: SU Winner – Nets, ATS Winner – Nets, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Brooklyn is 2-3 ATS at home with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Brooklyn is 3-0 when they allow less than 100 points, while Miami is 2-0.
The Nets are 6-7 when they reach the century mark, while the Heat are 4-8.
Miami ranks fourth in second chance points per game (15.7) while Brooklyn ranks 26th in second chance points allowed per game (16.4).
The Heat rank first in blocks per game (6.9) while the Nets rank 22nd (4.6).
Miami averages 47.4 rebounds per game, which ranks sixth in the league. Brooklyn ranks 21st in rebounds allowed per game (46.7).
The Nets rank first in three pointers allowed per game (24.9) while the Heat rank ninth (30.0).
Miami ranks 22nd in fast break points per game (11.2) while Brooklyn ranks 27th (8.1).
The Nets rank 23rd in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.9) while the Heat rank 27th (20.2).
Brooklyn ranks first in assists allowed per game (20.6) while Miami ranks fifth (22.2).
The Heat rank fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (44.3) while the Nets rank sixth (44.7).
Bettings Trends:
In its last five games, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Brooklyn is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Heat’s average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 2.4, up from 0.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nets have scored an average of 110.2 points per game (1.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 105.0 points per game (5.1 below their season average).
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