The Dallas Mavericks (5-8) square off against the Utah Jazz (7-6) at the American Airlines Center. The game is scheduled to begin at 8:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, November 14, 2018.
The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 213.5 points with Utah opening as a 4-point favorite.
Utah Jazz vs. Dallas Mavericks Free Prediction
The Jazz come in on a high note after covering the 4-point spread against the Memphis Grizzlies in their last matchup, 96-88. The game’s total points (184) finished well under the O/U total of 202. The Jazz, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 23.0, had a superb mark of 27.7 and had a free throw rate of 0.280 (above their season average of 0.257). Rudy Gobert had a good outing for Utah, finishing with 15 points and 16 rebounds.
The last time the Mavericks were in action, they were victorious over the Chicago Bulls, 103-98, covering as 2.5-point favorites. The total points for the game (201) finished under the O/U total of 215.5. Dallas’ effective field goal percentage was their biggest strength over Chicago. The Mavericks had a rate of 0.525 (below their season average of 0.528), while the Bulls posted a mark of 0.438 (below their season average of 0.515). Harrison Barnes led Dallas in scoring with 23 points on 7-for-16 shooting from the field.
The productive offense of Utah (eighth in the league with an offensive efficiency of 109.1) will battle against the mid-tier defense of Dallas (23rd in the NBA with a defensive efficiency of 109.2). The Jazz should have the advantage on that side of the ball.
Utah comes into the game with records of 7-6 straight up (SU) and 7-6 against the spread (ATS). Of the Jazz’s 13 games, nine have gone over the O/U total.
Although Dallas has trouble winning games outright (5-8 SU), they have an excellent record ATS (8-5). A little over half of Mavericks games have finished over the total.
Derrick Favors has averaged 12.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 1.6 blocks over the last five games for Utah.
The Jazz have won both matchups against the Mavericks this season, including a 117-102 victory the last time these teams met. Utah covered as a 10-point favorite and the game finished with a total of 219 points, which was just 5 points above the projected point total of 214 points. The Jazz’s 9.9 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Mavericks, who had a rate of 20.9. Gobert put up a double-double in the victory with 17 points and 10 rebounds.
Jazz vs. Mavericks Free Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Jazz, ATS Winner – Jazz, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Utah is 4-3 ATS with 4 overs and 3 unders.
Dallas is 4-2 ATS at home with 3 overs and 3 unders.
Utah is 2-1 when they allow less than 100 points, while Dallas is 2-0.
In games where they score over 100 points, the Mavericks are 5-8 and the Jazz are 6-4.
Utah ranks third in assists allowed per game (21.8) while Dallas ranks 23rd (24.5).
The Jazz average 8.0 steals per game, which ranks 11th in the league. The Mavericks rank 27th in steals allowed per game (9.8).
Dallas ranks 10th in points off turnovers per game (17.8) while Utah ranks 21st in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.6).
The Mavericks rank fourth in points allowed in the paint per game (43.7) while the Jazz rank 10th (47.4).
Utah ranks second in rebounds allowed per game (40.8) while Dallas ranks sixth (41.8).
The Jazz rank third in second chance points allowed per game (11.2) while the Mavericks rank sixth (11.4).
Utah ranks third in blocks allowed per game (4.2) while Dallas ranks fifth (4.6).
The Jazz rank fourth in three pointers allowed per game (28.5) while the Mavericks rank sixth (29.2).
Utah averages 11.7 fast break points per game, which ranks 19th in the league. Dallas ranks 21st in fast break points allowed per game (15.5).
Bettings Trends:
Over its last five games, Utah is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Dallas is 3-2 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over its last five games.
The Jazz’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 0.6, down from 2.2 for the season.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 108.2 points per game (2.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 105.8 points per game (6.7 below their season average).
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