The Indiana Pacers need to block all thoughts about the past and the future as they face elimination in the first round series against the reigning world champions, the Cleveland Cavaliers. Getting swept seems unfair to the Pacers, who could have been up in the series with a couple of balls falling to their cause, but the Cavaliers already got away with playing relaxed and are unlikely to let it happen again. Game 4 will be nationally televised on Sunday, so the players will want to look good.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers Game 4
LINE: Cleveland -3 (-118); moneyline -149
Total: 212.5 (+100 over, -104 under)
LeBron James continues to amaze
The Cleveland Cavaliers pulled off the greatest halftime comeback in the NBA playoffs history, climbing back from 25 points down to win 119-114 and go up 3-0 in their first round series against Indiana. Without Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love playing a single minute in the fourth quarter, James managed to lift the Cleveland Cavaliers the victory, finishing the night with 41 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists. He put up 28 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists and zero turnovers in the 2nd half alone, an output no other Cavalier has ever achieved over the course of an entire game, let alone one half.
It’s impossible to explain what happened. The Cavs fell behind by playing listless, shooting badly and the Pacers rode the high wave. The 74 points allowed by the Cavaliers were the most a LeBron James team has allowed in the first half of any playoff game. The break came not a moment too soon, as the Cavaliers shook off the terrible first half and came out with more tenacity on the defensive end. Actually, Cleveland’s defense was more impressive than James’ offense, holding Indiana to 5-for-26 shooting in third period. But the three point shooting has allowed them to climb back so quickly. The Cavaliers finished 21 of 44 from 3-point range, including 12 of 21 in their 70-point second half.
Kudos to Irving and Love who played the cheerleading role without asking to re-enter the game, but the two haven’t been too productive during their time in. Irving shot 4-of-17 in 28 minutes and was team worst -15 on the plus/minus. He joined a group of Smith, Love and Frye of players who scored 13 points in Game 3, while Kyle Korver hit 4-of-5 three point shots for his 12 points. The unsung hero was Tristan Thompson, whose defense was exemplary in the second half and he also grabbed 7 of the Cavs 8 total offensive rebounds to create extra possessions.
Place: Bankers Life Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, Indiana
Date/Time: Sunday April 23th, 2017. 1:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ABC
Indiana collapse in Game 3 a spirit-crushing one
Teams trailing 0-3 in a best-of-seven series have never come back to win in 121 attempts. Of those 121, 73 ended in sweeps. That’s the group the Indiana Pacers dropped into when they allowed the Cleveland Cavaliers to mount the 2nf half comeback for ages. They lost the three games by 12 points combined, so there’s surely a bitter taste in their mouths. The Pacers entered halftime Thursday with a 98.8 percent chance to win. Indiana shot 56.8 percent during the opening half, including 10 of 17 from 3-point range. They are facing much lower percentage to win the series entering Sunday, so it’ll take a lot of magic to trick their players into believing. Vacation locations are calling.
With a risk of stating the obvious, it was a tale of two halves for the Pacers, and it all started at the offensive end. The Pacers played the start of the game with a lot of zest and it translated to supreme activity on the court. Thaddeus Young was a particular menace on the boards, grabbing 10 offensive rebounds in the first half. Combine that with 56.8 percent shooting and it’s clear why the Pacers led by 25 points at the half. They got a power-kick from their bench as well. Stephenson, Ellis and Seraphin scored 32 points between them for the game, 19 of which came in the first quarter. Their star, Paul George played like one. He finished the game with 36 points, 15 rebounds and 9 assists, doing his best to match James’ production. But the rim shrunk in the pivotal third quarter as George failed to score and panic mode did the rest. Indiana came out relaxed and allowed too many open shots for the Cavaliers and mustered just 40 points on 25.5 percent shooting in the second half.
The Pacers out-rebounded the Cavaliers, hit 22-of-26 of their free throws and shot 39 percent on the threes for the game, committing just 9 turnovers. They had 4 players not named George score in double digits. They threw two off the Cavs stars of their games. So it was just a matter of hitting more shots in the second half for the Pacers. An opportunity squandered.
Cleveland Cavaliers at Indiana Pacers Game 4 Trends & Prediction
After covering just once in the last 6 games, the Cleveland Cavaliers not only enjoyed the improbable win, but also cashed in their backers wagers. They are just 37-45-3 against the spread this season, but at least they avenged the loss to Atlanta when they led 26-point in the fourth quarter. Cleveland are just 18-24 ATS away from home, and they don’t play up to the expectations on the early tip-off game, where they covered just twice in 8 games. They are just 3-10-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings with the Pacers. They are a clear over team, going 50-34-1 against the over/under over the course of the season.
The best active ATS streak in the NBA has ended, as Indiana failed to cover for the first time in April. They are 41-43-1 for the season and 23-18-1 at home against the spread. All three postseason games ended with over points, and Indy have topped the total points line in five of the previous six games. They are 44-41 against the over/under this season, but just 20-22 at home.
The market opened with Cleveland as 3-point favorites and the public bets move the spread to 3.5. It’s clear that the heart-breaking loss can have a mental consequences on the Pacers, but despite being down, they have put up a good fight and will do their best not to get swept. With the clear value on the home team, try to ignore the noise and take the Pacers. The total points have risen a bit more, as the teams play at a good pace and have less offensive issues, so we should stay with the same adjustment. I’m going with the Over set at 211.5 points for this game, giving me borderline value to hunt the overs.
My Pick: Indiana +3.5 (-102) & moneyline +150
Total: Over 211.5 points (-105)
