The Stanford Cardinal have made four straight top-level bowl games, playing in the most prestigious postseason contests the sport of college football has on its schedule. The Orange Bowl after the 2010 season; the Fiesta Bowl after the 2011 season; the Rose Bowl after each of the last two seasons – this program has been a complete machine. Now, with a lot of roster changes, can the Cardinal hold things together? They’re going to face an uphill battle in all likelihood, but Stanford faced an uphill battle to begin with in terms of making four straight elite bowl games. This program is capable of producing more positive surprises.
Strengths
The Cardinal have some pieces back on both sides of the ball, making them a fairly balanced team that won’t overly rely on any one thing to win games. It’s better for a team to have options on both sides of the field than to have to depend on only one unit, and that’s the good way to view Stanford’s situation entering this season. The Cardinal have Kevin Hogan back at quarterback. He’s a steady veteran hand who should be able to pilot this offense with great self assurance and calmness, which should help his teammates navigate the season amidst crises and pressure points. The anchor for Hogan in the receiving corps is Ty Montgomery, a speedburner who is also a lethal threat as a kick returner. Montgomery will continue to give Stanford a lot of value-added contributions this season, you can be sure of that. On the offensive line, Stanford has a future top-five NFL pick in Andrus Peat, a massive yet agile tackle who is exactly the kind of player head coach David Shaw has been able to depend on up front over the past few seasons.
Weaknesses
The Cardinal are going to be a lot weaker at running back and especially in their defensive front seven. Running back Tyler Gaffney was a consistent producer on third downs. He almost always got the tough yards the Cardinal needed in an important point of a game. The defensive front seven is a much bigger concern than the running game, though. Defensive end Ben Gardner, linebacker Shayne Skov, and linebacker Trent Murphy were all elite players, not just in the Pac-12 but on a national level as well. Stanford had a bonecrushing defensive force with those players on the field, and that triple loss is going to prove important for the team this season.
Schedule
The Cardinal face a huge test in week two against USC, getting a conference game against a team that’s expected to challenge for the Pac-12 South Division title. Stanford then goes to Washington three weeks later to face the Huskies, a competitor in the Pac-12 North. The road doesn’t get much easier after that, with road trips to Notre Dame and Arizona State in the month of October, followed by a road trip to Oregon on Nov. 1. Stanford then closes the season at UCLA. All the tough games are on the road. It’s really a nightmarish schedule with hardly any bits of good fortune.
Outlook
The Cardinal lose too much on defense to hold up well against a schedule this tough. You might think that since this is Stanford, the Cardinal will have all the answers, but the more you consider the schedule, nine games would probably be a rosy scenario. Hogan will have to be great, not just good, in order to win nine games. That’s probably not going to happen. Take the under.
Pick: Under 8.5 at -109
