The Tennessee Volunteers are going to be a very different kind of team compared to last year’s version, but they might end up pretty much in the same place after 12 games. Can this team find a way to steal a few games it is not expected to win? If the answer is yes, the Volunteers can go to a bowl game and feel very good about where they stand heading into the 2015 season.
Strengths
The Volunteers were a very strong team up front last season, especially on defense, but they didn’t have the skill players who were ready to make consistent contributions. However, this season, the roles are largely reversed. Running back Rajion Neal is gone, but Jalen Hurd should replace him well and not cause a big drop-off in production. Marquez North began to come into his own in the second half of last season, and with more experience, he should be a monster at wide receiver this season. He’ll be joined by a couple of recruits at flanker that the Vols are really excited about: Von Pearson and Josh Malone. Quarterback Justin Worley is not as good as his receivers will be, but since he does have a better overall group of receivers to throw to, he’s probably going to look a little bit better by comparison. If Worley’s receivers are good about getting open quickly, the Vols can work around their limitations and get to a bowl game, which is the goal for the program in 2014.
Weaknesses
The Vols were a weak skill-position team last season, but now they’re weak on the lines. Offensive tackle Antonio Richardson was a total beast up front for Tennessee in 2013, but he has moved on. Defensive tackle Daniel McCullers and defensive end Corey Miller are also part of the past. There are no returning starters along the defensive front. That’s the kind of deficit which is likely to be way too hard to fully overcome in a conference as tough as the SEC. How many programs can replace defensive lines wholesale? Alabama might be able to do that because of the insane quality of its recruits, but that’s an exceptional case and not the norm. Tennessee’s become very weak as a program due to violations and coaching changes in recent years. This program is not ready to take on this level of turnover on its defensive front.
Schedule
The Volunteers have one of the toughest schedules in the country this season. It’s a murderer’s row from start to finish. Utah State is not an easy opponent in week one. Arkansas State should be a win, but the Red Wolves are not a piece of cake. Then comes a game at No. 4 Oklahoma, a team that should romp over the visiting Vols. Tennessee then faces the SEC schedule, with road dates at Georgia, Ole Miss, and South Carolina, plus home dates against Alabama, Florida and Missouri. Games against Chattanooga, Kentucky and Vanderbilt will offer some relief, but that’s it.
Outlook
The team is probably better than what its record is going to be. This schedule is pure hell, and you have to be special, not just good, to overcome a slate as daunting as this one is. The under is the right play for Tennessee in 2014, though this program could be a lot better a year from now.
Pick: Over 5.5 at -125, Under +105
