NCAAF Picks: The Clemson Tigers have shown significant improvement each year on defense since Brent Venables arrived from Oklahoma to rebuild the unit three years ago. The Tigers have needed that defense to be their foundation for the 2014 season due to an offense that had its lineup wiped out with graduation and the NFL. The Wake Forest Demon Deacons figure to match up poorly with Clemson due to their putrid offense that is among the worst in the nation.
The Demon Deacons will host the Tigers at BB&T Field on Thursday night with coverage on ESPN starting at 7:30 PM ET. Clemson figures to be a strong favorite in this one.
Clemson becomes Overlay
Clemson is 6-2 straight up but 4-4 against the spread and 3-5 under the total. The Tigers rank second in the nation for total defense and 10th for scoring defense. Clemson has failed to cover the spread in their last three games despite winning them all straight up. The Tigers are coming off a bye week that followed a 16-6 home win over Syracuse.
Offensive Deacon Offense
Wake Forest is 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS, and 1-7 under the total. The Deacs are coming off a 23-17 home loss to Boston College but did cover as 13.5 point dogs. Wake ranks 128th for total offense and 125th for scoring offense.
Matchup and Pick
Clemson has been a strong road value with 10 payouts in their last 15 away matchups. The Tigers have gone under the total in six of their last 10 away games. The Tigers have paid out in six out of their last nine games as a chalk with five out of their last seven games as a favorite going under the total.
Wake Forest has been a weak board value at home. The Demon Deacons have dropped seven out of their last 11 games at BB&T Field with 11 out of their last 13 home games going under the total. The Demon Deacons have been better as a dog with five payouts in their last eight games when getting points. The Deacs have gone under the total in 15 out of their last 20 games as a dog.
Clemson has paid out in five out of their last seven games against Wake Forest with five out of the last six meetings between the Tigers and Demon Deacons going under the total. Clemson has come away with the money in their last two visits to Wake Forest with the last four meetings at BB&T Field between the Tigers and Demon Deacons going under the total.
We’ll call for Clemson and under the total.
