NCAAF Picks: The NFL has raided the talented LSU Tigers roster for the past several years and that constant turnover of top shelf talent is finally taking its toll on head coach Les Miles, who has been forced to field an inexperienced team that is having the difficult task of on the job training in the SEC. The Florida Gators are down to a defense, both figuratively and literally, of head coach Will Muschamp’s job as the third year head coach continues to fail to develop anything close to an offense and will need to gut out low scoring games to win in 2014.
The Gators will host the Tigers at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium on Saturday with coverage on SEC Network starting at 7:30 PM ET. LSU opened as a one-point favorite.
Young Tigers need Teeth and Nails
LSU is 4-2 straight up and against the spread with a 3-3 mark on totals after last week’s 41-7 loss at Auburn in which the Tigers were exposed for all of their weaknesses. LSU has suffered a huge drop in offensive production from last year as they rank 55th overall nationally while the defense has also dropped to rank 32nd in the nation. Miles has had to juggle Anthony Jennings and Brandon Harris at QB with mixed results and no clear cut starter emerging.
Defending Their Season
Florida is coming off a 10-9 win at Tennessee which the Gators had to rally from a 9-0 deficit in the fourth quarter. Quarterback Jeff Driskel has proven once and for all to not be the answer after tossing three interceptions in another poor performance last week but Muschamp has no other viable options available. The Gators are 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS, and 3-1 over the total.
Matchup and Pick
LSU has struggled to maintain board value on the road as of late with just four payouts in their last 10 away games as just one out of their last six away games have gone under the total. Florida has been a terrible betting value at home with just five payouts in their last 20 games at the Swamp as just seven out of their last 17 home games have gone over the total. Florida has covered the spread in just one out of their last five games against LSU as just five out of the last 18 meetings between the Gators and Tigers have gone over the total.
Florida has been at their best against LSU at home however with the Gators getting the money in three out of their last four games at the swamp against the Tigers with six out of the last eight matchups between LSU and Florida at the Swamp going under the total. We’ll call for this one to stay under the number.
