With the regular season upon us, there’s no reason to spend even a week pretending a head coach won’t likely be fired before the league wraps up Week 17 in December. Certainly, if you’re a fan of a perennially underperforming squad, there’s no better feeling than watching the architect of your team’s awfulness get ejected from the building. It’s truly a highlight of every NFL year.
And don’t for a second feel sorry for any of these losers. They’re all millionaires and unless they’ve been blowing money like M.C. Hammer during Hammertime, they’ll be fine.
Here are the odds BetDSI is offering on the first head coach fired in 2018.
Dirk Koetter (+300)
Hue Jackson (+400)
Jason Garrett (+600)
Todd Bowles (+700)
Vance Joseph (+1000)
Jay Gruden (+1000)
Marvin Lewis (+1000)
Adam Gase (+1200)
Sean McDermott (+1500)
Anthony Lynn (+1500)
John Harbaugh (+2000)
Matt Patricia (+2000)
Doug Marrone (+2000)
Bill O’Brien (+2500)
Pete Carroll (+2500)
Dan Quinn (+2500)
Ron Rivera (+2500)
Steve Wilks (+2500)
Matt Nagy (+2500)
Frank Reich (+2500)
Pat Shurmur (+2500)
Mike Vrabel (+2500)
Jon Gruden (+3000)
Mike Zimmer (+3000)
Mike McCarthy (+3000)
Kyle Shanahan (+3000)
Sean McVay (+3500)
Andy Reid (+3500)
Mike Tomlin (+3500)
Sean Payton (+3500)
Doug Pederson (+5000)
Bill Belichick (+10000)
No Head Coach Fired (+250)
First off, let’s knock a lot of names off that list that just aren’t worth wasting your money on with a bet. Pretty much everybody from Pete Carroll on down is perfectly safe this season, either as an established, winning coach or as a first-year guy. I may not like that the Tennessee Titans hired Mike Vrabel as their new skipper, but he’s not going anywhere this season.
Now, that’s not to say they’re all safe. Mike McCarthy should absolutely be fired if the Green Bay Packers don’t make the playoffs this season. The only problem is, with a healthy Aaron Rodgers, a postseason appearance is always on the table for the Packers. Rodgers has single-handedly kept McCarthy employed for the last half decade.
Above Carroll, things get interesting. I can tell you right now who I think will be fired either in the regular season or immediately after — Dirk Koetter, Hue Jackson, Jay Gruden and Bill O’Brien.
I feel everybody else on that list is pretty safe, even guys that shouldn’t be like Marvin Lewis, Vance Joseph and Anthony Lynn. Todd Bowles at +700 is just ridiculous, frankly. The guy just got an extension this past offseason after the outstanding job he did in coaching a tanking New York Jets team to a 5-11 record. That team should have gone 1-15 at best. Getting that Jets team to five wins should have put him in the Coach of the Year conversation.
Adam Gase is safe, barring a complete team collapse. The Miami Dolphins won’t make the playoffs, but they could hit a 9-7 finish. If the Cincinnati Bengals didn’t let Marvin Lewis walk last season after his contract expired, they absolutely aren’t firing him this year, regardless of what happens. Sean McDermott will get a pass because he’ll be starting a rookie quarterback most of the year. Doug Marrone is the best head coach the Jacksonville Jaguars have had since they fired Tom Coughlin the first time.
And, regardless of anything stupid you ever see on the internet, read in a column, or hear in a podcast or talk radio show, the Baltimore Ravens aren’t going to fire John Harbaugh, maybe ever.
Jason Garrett is an interesting case, because I do believe the Dallas Cowboys have to make the postseason for him to keep his job. I also happen to believe they will, picking up an NFC Wild Card berth. Vance Joseph is in the same boat. He’ll have to get his team to the playoffs to remain employed. Luckily for Joseph, the Oakland Raiders traded away Khalil Mack, the Kansas City Chiefs are starting Patrick Mahomes and Anthony Lynn remains the coach of the Los Angeles Chargers. I think the Broncos will win the AFC West.
Speaking of Lynn, while he shouldn’t be safe, he will be. I don’t think Alex Spanos is firing Lynn until the Chargers are ready to move into the new stadium in Inglewood with the Rams in 2020. Lynn is a low-priced placeholder.
So, back to O’Brien, Koetter, Jackson and Jay Gruden. Which one will be the first to go?
O’Brien and Gruden will be saved by their quarterbacks, Deshaun Watson and Alex Smith, respectively. While it won’t keep either man from the guillotine come New Year’s Day, it will keep them on the sidelines through a 16-game season.
Jackson and Koetter, though, they’re coaching day-by-day. On its face, Koetter is the easy choice to go first. He’s been awful since Tampa Bay fired Lovie Smith and promoted him to head coach. The team consistently underperforms on both sides of the ball and now, this year, he’ll be without his starting quarterback Jameis Winston for the first three games. He’s a dead man walking.
But there’s a compelling case to be made for Jackson being the first to go, mainly because his replacement, offensive coordinator Todd Haley, is already on his staff. The issue there is that Jimmy Haslam, for some reason, thinks Jackson has some mojo left. After a 1-31 head coaching record with the Browns, Haslam actually said last January, “I don’t think Hue’s lost his magic …”. That happened. People were there and heard it. They recorded it and reported it like a real thing.
So there’s your answer. Place your bets on Koetter, who may not make it out of October as the Buccaneers’ head coach. Jackson might actually survive until the end of the season, but my guess is he’ll be on his couch come Christmastime.
