The Dallas Mavericks (24-57) and Phoenix Suns (20-61) get their Western Conference schedules started at American Airlines Center. The game starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, April 10, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Arizona.
Phoenix Suns vs. Dallas Mavericks ATS Prediction
In the Suns’ last game, they were topped by the Golden State Warriors, 117-100. Golden State’s 0.594 effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Phoenix, who had a mark of 0.478. The Warriors’ mark was above their season average of 0.571. Danuel House was Phoenix’s high scorer with 22 points on 9-for-18 shooting.
The Mavericks fell to the Philadelphia 76ers in their last contest, 109-97. Philadelphia’s free throw rate was their largest strength over Dallas. The 76ers had a rate of 0.099 (below their season average of 0.201), while the Mavericks posted a mark of 0.064 (below their season average of 0.167). Dallas’ Dennis Smith Jr. recorded 20 points, 11 assists and five rebounds in the contest.
Dallas should be expected to protect the ball well in this contest. Dallas ranks second in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 12.1 percent), while Phoenix forces the second-fewest turnovers (12.8 percent). It will also be a showdown of opposite paces as the up-and-down Suns rank third in possessions per game, while the more half-court oriented Mavericks rank 26th.
Phoenix heads into the game with records of 20-61 straight up (SU) and 36-43-2 against the spread (ATS). Of the Suns’ 81 games, 41 have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Dallas is 24-57 SU and 41-39-1 ATS. Much like Phoenix, Mavericks games have a slight tendency to finish under the total (53.1 percent).
Tyler Ulis has averaged 16.0 points, 7.2 assists and 1.2 steals over the last five games for Phoenix.
The Suns have won both contests against the Mavericks this season, including a 14-point victory in their last matchup. Phoenix covered as a 3-point underdog and the game finished with a total of 190 points, which was 21 points below the projected point total of 211 points. Phoenix had a much better effective field goal percentage (0.548 vs. 0.420). Dallas, on the other hand, had a much better turnover percentage (10.8 vs. 15.9). Marquese Chriss put up a double-double in the victory with 15 points and 12 rebounds.
Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks Betting Pick
Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Mavericks, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Phoenix is 22-17-1 ATS on the road with 21 unders, 18 overs and 1 push.
At home, Dallas is 20-20 ATS with 21 unders, 18 overs and 1 push.
Phoenix is 7-2 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Dallas is 16-13.
The Suns are 15-36 when they reach 100 points, while the Mavericks are 18-28.
Dallas ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.8) while Phoenix ranks 29th (18.7).
The Mavericks rank eighth in blocks allowed per game (4.5) while the Suns rank last (6.0).
Phoenix ranks 10th in points in the paint per game (45.9) while Dallas ranks 29th (38.6).
The Suns rank 11th in second chance points per game (12.9) while the Mavericks rank last (10.2).
Phoenix averages 14.2 fast break points per game, which ranks seventh in the NBA. Dallas ranks 26th in fast break points allowed per game (14.1).
The Mavericks rank eighth in steals allowed per game (7.3) while the Suns rank 25th (8.7).
Dallas ranks fourth in three pointers attempted per game (32.8) while Phoenix ranks 20th (27.9).
The Suns rank 12th in rebounds per game (44.1) while the Mavericks rank 27th (41.3).
Dallas ranks 16th in assists per game (22.7) while Phoenix ranks 28th (21.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Phoenix is 3-2 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Dallas is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders over their last five games.
The Suns’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 8.8, down from 9.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 101.0 points per game (1.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 106.8 points per game (1.7 above their season average).
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