The Miami Heat (2-2) clash with the Portland Trail Blazers (3-1) at AmericanAirlines Arena. The game starts at 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, October 27, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Seattle.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 221 points with Miami set as a 1-point favorite.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Miami Heat ATS Prediction
The last time the Trail Blazers played, they easily covered the 3.5-point spread against the Orlando Magic, 128-114. The combined points for the game (242) finished well over the O/U total of 213.5. The Trail Blazers had a turnover percentage of 9.2 (better than their season average of 12.6) and had a better free throw rate (0.241 vs. 0.186). Portland was led by Damian Lillard, who was the game’s leading scorer with 41 points on 13-for-23 shooting.
The Heat dismantled the New York Knicks in their last outing, 110-87, comfortably covering as 8-point favorites. The game’s combined points (197) finished well under the projected point total of 218. Getting to the free throw line was one of Miami’s largest strengths. They made 28 trips to the line, while New York went just 14 times. Hassan Whiteside was the top scorer from either team with 22 points on 8-for-14 shooting.
The offense of Miami will face off against the elite defense of Portland. Dating back to the 2017-18 season, the Heat rank 22nd in offensive efficiency, while the Trail Blazers are eighth in defensive efficiency. The Trail Blazers figure to have the edge on that end of the court.
The Trail Blazers have had records of 52-34 straight up (SU) and 44-46 against the spread (ATS) since last season. Games featuring Portland have had a tendency to go over the projected point total since last season (56.7 percent).
On the other hand, the Heat, have records of 46-40 SU and 51-35 ATS since last season. Miami’s games have had a slight tendency to go under the projected point total over that same time frame (53.5 percent).
The Trail Blazers won both games against the Heat last season. In the last matchup, Portland won 115-99. The Trail Blazers made 25 of their 30 free throws (83.3 percent) and had a better effective field goal percentage (0.542 vs. 0.484).
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Miami Heat ATS Pick
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
When allowing less than 100 points, Portland is 26-8 and Miami is 28-6.
When reaching the century mark, the Heat are 35-23 and the Trail Blazers are 47-22.
Miami averages 5.4 blocks per game, which ranks fifth in the NBA. Portland ranks 24th in blocks allowed per game (5.2).
The Trail Blazers rank sixth in second chance points per game (13.7) while the Heat rank 25th (11.2).
Miami ranks 14th in points off turnovers per game (16.5) while Portland ranks 29th (14.2).
The Trail Blazers rank third in rebounds per game (45.7) while the Heat rank 18th (43.7).
Miami ranks 15th in assists per game (22.7) while Portland ranks last (19.6).
The Heat rank 26th in fast break points per game (9.7) while the Trail Blazers rank last (8.6).
Portland ranks fifth in points allowed in the paint per game (43.1) while Miami ranks seventh (43.6).
The Trail Blazers rank fifth in three pointers allowed per game (26.7) while the Heat rank sixth (27.1).
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