The Denver Nuggets (3-0) try to stay unbeaten when they square off with the Sacramento Kings (1-2) at Pepsi Center. The game can be seen on NBC Sports – California at 9 p.m. ET on Tuesday, October 23, 2018.
Denver opened as an 11.5-point favorite, while the game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 227 points.
Sacramento Kings vs. Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
The last time the Kings played, they topped the Oklahoma City Thunder, 131-120, as 10.5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (251) were well over the projected point total of 222.5. Sacramento’s 0.231 free throw rate was their largest strength over Oklahoma City, who had a mark of 0.183. Sacramento received a boost from De’Aaron Fox, who had 22 points and 10 assists.
The Nuggets barely escaped the Golden State Warriors in their last contest, 100-98, despite being 4.5-point underdogs. The game’s total points (198) finished well under the O/U total of 230.5. The Nuggets had a much better turnover percentage (7.1 vs. 16.7) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (27.7 vs. 15.0). With 23 points, 11 rebounds and six assists, Denver’s Nikola Jokic put together a solid game.
Denver appears to have the advantage on the offensive side of the ball. The Nuggets rank sixth in offensive efficiency, while the Kings rank 28th in defensive efficiency dating back to the 2017-18 season.
Since last season, the Kings are 28-57 straight up (SU) and 42-40-3 against the spread (ATS). A little over half of Sacramento games have finished under the O/U total since last season.
On the other hand, the Nuggets, are 49-36 SU and 48-35-2 ATS since last season. Over that same period, Denver’s games have had a tendency to finish over the O/U total (58.8 percent).
The Nuggets won three out of four meetings against the Kings last season. In the last game, Denver won 130-104. The Nuggets’ offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest advantage over the Kings. Denver had a rate of 20.5, while Sacramento posted a mark of 14.0.
Sacramento Kings vs. Denver Nuggets Free Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Kings, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes (2017-Present):
When holding opponents below 100 points, Sacramento is 18-7 and Denver is 18-2.
When scoring above 100 points, the Nuggets are 42-26 and the Kings are 18-23.
Denver ranks third in second chance points per game (14.0) while Sacramento ranks 25th (11.2).
The Nuggets rank sixth in rebounds per game (44.8) while the Kings rank 28th (40.9).
Denver averages 30.8 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Sacramento ranks 29th in three pointers allowed per game (31.6).
The Nuggets rank fourth in assists per game (25.0) while the Kings rank 25th (21.6).
Sacramento ranks 12th in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.8) while Denver ranks 29th (18.5).
The Nuggets rank 12th in blocks per game (5.0) while the Kings rank 25th (4.1).
Denver ranks fifth in points in the paint per game (49.0) while Sacramento ranks 15th (44.3).
The Nuggets average 13.7 fast break points per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. The Kings rank 18th in fast break points allowed per game (12.6).
Sacramento ranks 11th in steals per game (7.9) while Denver ranks 19th in steals allowed per game (7.8).
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