Since last week, not much has changed atop the division standings. The Red Sox continue leading the American League East – 3.5 games above the Yankees and the Rays – while the Indians lead the AL Central by 1.5 games over the Twins and Royals. The best team in the AL by a longshot, the Astros (the second best team has a .556 win percentage; the Astros have a .670 win percentage!) have basically wrapped up the AL West with a 17 game lead. On the National League side, the Nationals and Dodgers hold comfortable leads atop their respective divisions, the NL East and West, by 11 and 10.5 games. The Brewers are still trying to fend off the Cubs, who are now just a game back of the NL Central. With the recap of the MLB standings, here is a look at the Sunday Night Baseball betting preview.
Details
Date – Sunday July 23rd, 2017
Time – 8:00PM EST
Line – CHC -172
Why The Cardinals Might Win
While the Cardinals are currently 4.5 games back and in fourth place in the tightly contested NL Central, their run differential is actually better than that of the Cubs’ (+22 vs. +21). The Cardinals will roll out one of their more dependable starting pitchers in Michael Wacha. So far on the year, Wacha has compiled a 7–3 record to go with a 3.71 ERA, 3.34 FIP, and 1.33 WHIP while allowing opponents to slash .262/.324/.393 – decent numbers but nothing spectacular. However, Wacha has been absolutely lights out over the past month – 4–0 record, 1.01 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 10.5 K/9, and 0 HR allowed in 26.2 innings pitched while allowing opponents to slash an unforgiving .189/.235/.221. Additionally, Wacha has recorded four straight quality starts (all resulting in wins) heading into tonight’s game, with his last start being a complete game shutout against the Mets. If this version of Michael Wacha shows up tonight, the Cardinals should head home with the series win.
Why The Cubs Might Win
The newly-acquired Jose Quintana was nothing short of remarkable in his last start – his first for the Cubs since coming over from the White Sox. Quintana tallied seven innings pitched while not allowing a run or a walk, striking out 12 batters and inducing 21 swings-and-misses. However, on the year, Quintana has not looked as good – 5–8 record with a 4.20 ERA, 3.74 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP while allowing opponents to slash .239/.307/.405. Similar to Wacha, Quintana has been much better over the past month, compiling one win in four starts with a 2.35 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, and a 12.9 K/9 rate while allowing opponents to slash .188/.258/.306. If Quintana is able to repeat his performance during his last start, the Cubs will head into a series against Quintana’s former team with a win over the Cardinals.
Outlook
In Wacha’s last start against the Cubs, he was rocked for six runs with two HRs allowed in only 4.1 innings pitched. Additionally, Wacha has struggled mightily on the road this year – 1–2 record with a 5.13 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, and five HRs allowed in just 33.1 innings pitched. Opponents have also slashed .291/.349/.440 against Wacha on the road. When we dive deeper into the head-to-head matchups between Wacha and some of the Cubs players, we see that Wacha has indeed been hit hard by the Cubs’ two best players:
Anthony Rizzo vs. Wacha .455/.471/.758 with 3 HRs, 1 BB, 2 SO in 33 ABs
Kris Bryant vs. Wacha .364/.417/.864 with 2 HRs, 2 BB, 8 SO in 22 ABs
Addison Russell vs. Wacha .273/.385/.545 in 11 ABs
Ben Zobrist vs. Wacha .182/.308/.273 with 2 BB and 0 SO in 11 ABs
Jason Heyward vs. Wacha No hits or walks with 1 SO in 8 ABs
Kyle Schwarber vs. Wacha .333/.500/1.333 with 1 HR in 3 ABs
Ian Happ vs. Wacha .667/.667/2.667 with 2 HRs in 3 ABs
With the dominance exhibited by some of the Cubs’ batters against Wacha in combination with the Cubs being neck-in-neck for first place in the NL Central and Quintana coming off his best start this season, it would be difficult to bet against the Cubs.
This betting line has bounced around quite a bit since open as we’ve seen the Cubs as -183 and as low as -166. They seem to have settled in that -170 range and that’s where we’ll take a shot with them in this spot.
Pick: Cubs -170
The MLB season is in full swing, so if you’re looking at betting lines, in-game betting and World Series futures, click here to bet on MLB (or any other sports) at BetDSI!
