Our wait is over. Pro Bowls have been played as well as all the college All-Star games leading up to this Sunday at 6:30 p.m EST. Someone will butcher the National Anthem, the NFL will pray every player stands and doesn’t cause a scene and Super Bowl LII will be played. It’s a national holiday and, like most Super Sundays, the New England Patriots (15-3) have crashed the party.
They will face off against the Philadelphia Eagles on your local NBC station and viewing device of choice.
The Game: Super Bowl LII: Philadelphia Eagles at New England Patriots (-6)
O/U: 48.0
The History
The Eagles and Patriots have played against each other 13 times since 1973 with Philadelphia holding a 7-6 edge thanks to a 35-28 win over New England at Gillette back in 2015. The Eagles took a 35-14 lead into the fourth quarter thanks to a blocked punt returned for a touchdown by Najae Goode, a Malcolm Jenkins 99-yard interception return for a touchdown and a Darren Sproles 83-yard punt return for a touchdown. Philadelphia held on to win in spite of two Tom Brady led touchdown drives in a comeback attempt.
I know this probably won't happen but what if the final score of the Super Bowl was Eagles Dilly, Patriots Dilly and they threw both teams into the pit of despair that'd be crazy
— Mike Meech (@meechone) February 2, 2018
This is a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIX where the Patriots held off the Eagles 24-21 for their third Super Bowl title. Tom Brady finished the game 23-of-33 for 236 yards and two touchdowns. Donovan McNabb was 30-of-51 for 357 yards, three touchdowns and three picks. Philadelphia wide receiver Terrell Owens is famous for playing this game on a broken leg. In spite of that, he caught nine passes for 122 yards.
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (15-3)
There are two story lines for the Eagles coming into the Super Bowl and both might be equally important. The first, obviously, is quarterback Nick Foles. He’s been phenomenal in the playoffs for this Philly squad this season and is the only quarterback in NFL history besides Joe Montana to complete more than 70 percent of his passes in back-to-back playoff games. If he can do it for a third game in a row, Philadelphia will win. It’s as simple as that.
Coach knows.#SBLII | #FlyEaglesFly pic.twitter.com/5WqXsKedHD
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) February 2, 2018
The second story line is one concerning the referees. It’s no secret that the officiating in the Patriots’ previous playoff game against the Jacksonville Jaguars was egregious. Now, I’m usually one to jump on any Patriots hate bandwagon, but I didn’t take the criticism that seriously even though New England was only penalized once in the entire game compared to Jacksonville’s six penalties. That is ridiculous, but officiating has sucked in pretty much every playoff game this postseason. The fact that so many of those calls (or non-calls) seem to go New England’s way is just a mystery you’ll have to solve on your own.
Still, what intrigues me about the whole thing is the actual attention this got. Not only that, Eagles head coach Doug Pederson is preparing for it by actually scouting game tape of referee Gene Steratore and his crew. Steratore’s normal gameday group threw the second-most flags, 17.1 per game, in the NFL. The Patriots have such a known “advantage” that there are Super Bowl prop bets based on it. Pederson is a smart dude and prepping to face off against the refs too makes me want to nod and stroke my beard contemplatively.
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (15-3)
What else can you say about the Patriots at this point? We can blame SpyGate and the ensuing NFL cover-up for their first three titles, but the bastards have made it to the Super Bowl five times since then. While I completely supported any and all punishment handed down over DeflateGate, if anything the under-inflated footballs were a hindrance to Tom Brady’s performance. They may have felt easier to handle, but before New England got busted, the future Hall of Famer looked like he was wrapping up his career. Since he’s been forced to play with properly inflated footballs, he’s better than ever.
"Tom is definitely the type of dude you invite over to watch the Super Bowl with you. The problem is he's always in the Super Bowl."@jtimberlake had plenty of #Patriots quotes in yesterday's presser: https://t.co/TFdo1CAn1v pic.twitter.com/Ko5Fo5DHTj
— New England Patriots (@Patriots) February 2, 2018
Plus, he throws a much-improved, more accurate deep ball. It’s a good thing as that’s what this present Patriots team is built to do with Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan going long.
The strength of the Patriots coaching philosophy embodied by Bill Belichick in the second half of this dynasty is simple; don’t be stupid. Don’t make dumb mistakes, don’t beat yourself and play the smart odds all the way. It’s brilliant in its simplicity and it’s put the post-Spygate Patriots in the Super Bowl five times and in the AFC title game nearly every single year.
Fun Fact
If the Patriots win the Super Sunday, they will tie the Pittsburgh Steelers as the only franchises in the NFL to win six Vince Lombardi Trophies in league history.
The Pick
This line at DSI didn’t move an inch since they posted it after the championship rounds, but every other book has ticked theirs down a at least a point. I’m seeing Pats -4 or -4.5 with over-unders in the 48.5/49.0 range. You could absolutely pick your poison in this one.
Here’s a few stats to think about. Four of the last five Super Bowls have hit the over, with the Denver Broncos’ 24-10 win over the Carolina Panthers being the outlier. Of the Patriots’ seven previous Super Bowls, they’ve been under the points prediction four times and, twice in wins and in both of their losses to the New York Giants.
In last year's Super Bowl, Tom Brady cemented his status as the Greatest of All-Time.
On Sunday, he can become the Greatest of All Toms. pic.twitter.com/LewTQfvw71
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) February 2, 2018
Against the spread? New England has been underdogs twice and won both games (the St. Louis Rams in XXXVI and Seattle Seahawks in XLIX). Of the five previous Super Bowls they’ve been favored, they covered the spread exactly one time and that was last year’s 34-28 come from behind win over the Atlanta Falcons.
Personally, I’ve picked against the Patriots five times out of their seven trips to the Super Bowl and I’m 4-3 when they take the field on the NFL’s final Sunday. I’m no jinx, but I’m no help either.
Brady’s hand is still hurt. Gronk is barely out of the concussion protocol and this will, unquestionably be the best and most talented defense the Patriots have faced all season. Does that make me brave enough to pick Philadelphia? No. It does make me think that six points is just too much. Four probably is too. Patriots 23, Eagles 20
Last week
Straight up: 2-0
Against the spread: 2-0
Playoffs
Straight up: 5-5
Against the spread: 5-5
Season
Straight up: 162-104
Against the spread: 125-135
To make a wager on any sport, go to the world famous Diamond Sportsbook by clicking here.
