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Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays Free Pick 09/29/18

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

The Toronto Blue Jays will be squaring off against their divisional rival Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field. Fox Sports Sun will broadcast the matchup and the game is scheduled to get going at 6:10 p.m. ET.

Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays Odds

Vegas is listing Toronto (+215) as the underdog to Tampa Bay (-235). The total is sitting at 7 runs and gamblers can take the over for -105 and the under for -115. The game’s current runline odds sit at -105 for picking the Blue Jays +1.5 runs and -115 for the Rays -1.5 runs.

The Blue Jays are 73-87 SU and are 70-89 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 8.8 units for moneyline bettors and 30.0 units ATS. Toronto is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has hit in five of those seven. The Rays, on the other hand, are 88-72 SU and 90-69 ATS. The team’s gained 23.9 units for moneyline bettors and 22.3 units ATS. Tampa Bay has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.

Tampa Bay games have an over/under record of 71-83-5 in 2018. The Blue Jays have been a decent over bet with a total record of 79-71-9.

Left-hander Ryan Borucki will get the start for the visiting Blue Jays. Borucki (4-5, 3.76 ERA) has recorded 64 punchouts in 91 innings so far. He’s 0-2 with 12 strikeouts and a 2.77 ERA against Tampa Bay this year (two starts).

The Rays are putting the ball in the hands of lefty Blake Snell (21-5, 1.90 ERA), who has 211 strikeouts and 60 walks to his credit, as well as a WHIP of 0.96. Snell is 2-0 with 17 strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA across two starts against Toronto this year.

Toronto’s pitching staff allowed 5.1 runs per game and its starters own a 5.11 ERA, 1.43 WHIP and 7.54 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.42, along with a WHIP of 1.43 and a K/9 of 9.10.

The Blue Jays offense has slashed .244/.314/.428 on its way to 4.4 runs scored per game this season, including 3.9 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).

Toronto’s offensive production has been sparked by right fielder Kevin Pillar and first baseman Justin Smoak, who have combined to launch 40 home runs. Pillar is slashing .248/.278/.420 with 15 home runs, 58 RBIs, 64 runs and 14 stolen bases, while Smoak (.242/.351/.458) has produced 25 homers, 77 RBIs and 67 runs scored.

In the home-team dugout, Tampa Bay’s pitching staff has given up 4.0 runs per game overall this year. Its starting pitching staff has a 3.71 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.80 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.2 K/9. In 74 games against divisional opponents, Rays starters have an ERA of 4.97 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.84.

The Tampa Bay offense is putting up 4.4 runs per contest, including 4.4 per game against divisional foes and 3.6 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .193/.290/.311 over its last five contests and is 1-4 SU during that span.

Third baseman Matt Duffy and second baseman Joey Wendle have led the Rays’ batters this year. Duffy is hitting .294/.361/.366 with four home runs, 44 RBIs and 59 runs scored, while Wendle’s line is .300/.354/.436 with seven homers, 59 RBIs, 61 runs and 15 stolen bases.

The Blue Jays have lost 20.4 units and are 21-31 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 24 of those games, compared to 23 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Rays have netted 10.1 units and are 27-18 ATS when facing a lefty starter. The over has hit in 16 of those games, compared to 27 that’ve gone under.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays Prediction

Predictions: SU Winner – Rays, ATS Winner – Blue Jays, O/U – OVER

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Notes

Betting Trends

The over has hit in four of Tampa Bay’s last seven games.

The Rays have lost four of their last five games SU.

Toronto fielders have 11 errors over the last 10 games, compared to four errors for Tampa Bay over its last 10.

The Blue Jays have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games. The Rays have hit nine over their last 10.

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