Regardless of how the rest of Trey Burton’s career plays out, he’ll always have the touchdown pass he threw in Super Bowl LII. But the Chicago Bears‘ new tight end is hoping that was just the beginning.
The newest #Bears are officially official. ✍️ pic.twitter.com/Q9gR4jabll
— Chicago Bears (@ChicagoBears) March 15, 2018
Burton is already getting plenty of hype in his new situation. Playing for a head coach who had special use for his tight end as an offensive coordinator will do that. Considering the lack of production that tends to come from tight ends in fantasy, that connection is enough to get our attention. The problem: opportunity is just part of the equation. Burton still has plenty to prove.
Reasons to Get Excited
Chicago’s Travis Kelce
With former Kansas City offensive coordinator Matt Nagy taking over for John Fox, much has been made over who would play the “Travis Kelce role” in Chicago’s offense. It appears that task will go to Burton.
CHI confirms Trey Burton will primarily play in slot, with primary objective of running pass routes. Kelce role. H/T @evansilva: https://t.co/vBftRPL4Vs
— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) March 28, 2018
Kelce led all tight ends in targets (122) and targets per game (8.1) in 2017. If Burton can get anything close to this kind of usage, he’ll be an every-week start.
Replacing Ertz
Burton also had some big games when filling in for Zach Ertz. In the two games Ertz missed last year, Burton caught seven passes for 112 yards and three touchdowns. That lends some credence to the notion that Burton can produce as a starting tight end even though he has never done so on a regular basis.
Red Zone
Though Burton was technically a backup with the Eagles, he was especially efficient in the red zone. He scored four touchdowns despite getting only seven targets. Travis Kelce needed 20 red zone targets to score five touchdowns. Burton will no doubt see more looks inside the 20 in Chicago, where his efficiency would lead to fantasy stardom.
Reasons to Pump the Brakes
Not Necessarily Kelce
This is one of those times that we need to remind ourselves that talent does matter in fantasy football. Just because Burton inherits the “Travis Kelce role” doesn’t mean he can produce in the same manner Kelce did. Kelce is arguably the most talented tight end in the league outside of Rob Gronkowski, meaning he’s going to make plays most tight ends can’t. Burton inheriting a Kelce workload is not anywhere near the same as inheriting Kelce production.
Mitchell Trubisky
Much like Burton’s new teammate, Allen Robinson, uncertainty at quarterback means added risk. Mitchell Trubisky is the supposed future of the franchise, but that didn’t stop him from having a hand in Chicago fielding the worst passing offense in the NFL in 2017. If Trubisky makes The Leap with Chicago’s new offensive-minded coaching staff, Burton becomes very intriguing. If not, this will be yet another cautionary tale surrounding receivers with unproven quarterbacks.
No Track Record
Though Burton has shown flashes in limited action, he has never been a long-term starting tight end or a heavily targeted receiver. He got a career-high 60 targets in 2016, which was good for sixth on the Eagles. Had he gotten that many targets in 2017, he would have ranked 23rd among tight ends, just ahead of Seth DeValve and behind the trio of Hunter Henry, Tyler Kroft and Julius Thomas. It may look like he’s headed for 100 or more targets, but what if the role is too much for him? We may look back and realize Adam Shaheen was the Chicago tight end we should have targeted.
Conclusion
You don’t have to look very hard to find “TE1” and “top-five TE” projections for Burton. Those are lofty goals for an undrafted free agent who has 629 receiving yards in four seasons. But if he really does shine as Chicago’s version of Kelce, he’ll be a steal. So, this comes down to how much risk you like to tolerate. If the hype continues, it may take a seventh or eighth-round pick to get Burton. If that sounds like a fun gamble, go for it. Otherwise, look for better value or just stream tight ends week to week.
